Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday March 9 | Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern

Azeri Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

I’m going to start with Tiny Temper (7), one of more than a few horses which can win this race, but one which, if she does win, makes us the MOST money, because she opens at 20 to 1. The most lightly raced horse in the field, Tiny Temper has won both times she has run two turns as she’s doing here, the most recent on January 25 and very likely the reason trainer Dallas Stewart decided to enter her in a stakes race for the first time. She won that last race following five months off, without a prep, and she did so in impressive fashion more so than the half-length margin of victory makes it appear. That was her first start in blinkers and first with jockey Graham in the saddle, and one or both of those changes inspired the filly to rally from fifth into barely moderate fractions and run by the leaders late, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. While that figure may be nowhere as good, or as fast, as the 109 figure favorite Hot and Sultry (6) earned winning the Chilukki Stakes last November, Tiny Temper has a strong chance to improved markedly off her last race in her second start back from the long layoff, as well as a still maturing four year old. She’s also a daughter of Arrogate, whose Secret Oath won both the Honeybee in 2022 as a three year old and won the 2023 running of the Azeri Stakes, so there is little doubt this filly has the class, and speed, to be competitive in this situation.

Bellamore (2) also enters the race off a career-best effort, which came when winning the Houston Ladies Classic on January 27. That was her first win since July of 2022 and it occurred on the trainer change to Steve Asmussen’s barn at some point between then and her previous race in late November. This mare has earned more than $600,000 in her career and with it being likely she will also improve in her second start of 2024 she must be strongly considered as a contender.

Comparative (4) and Hot and Sultry (6) open as the likely favorites, at odds of 3 to 1 and 2 to 1, respectively. Between them there are nine wins in 21 races and more than $1 million in earnings. Just the same, both have won grade 3 stakes but are winless at higher levels, with Hot and Sultry having finished fourth in last year’s Azeri while Comparative finished eighth in the 2023 Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Comparative has good recent form, having won the Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn five weeks ago with a 97 figure, for her third win in a row. Hot and Sultry finished fifth after stumbling at the start in the same race as the prohibitive 4 to 5 favorite, eventually closing from ninth after the cause was lost and she did not have the good mid-pack or front facing position she had in all four of her career wins. With a better break, Hot and Sultry may run back to her Chilukki effort but it must be noted that came in a one-turn mile race and she has never won around two-turns in three tries, which makes her a poor bet to win at low odds although she shouldn’t be tossed out completely when considering our exacta options.

Bets:  

Win: Tiny Temper (7) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

I think we should also consider a win bet on Bellamore (2) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Considering one of the two favorites (Hot and Sultry) may be suspect, there is an opportunity for betting more than one horse to win in this race and making a nice profit either way.

Exactas:

First, because Tiny Temper (7) offers so much opportunity for profit, I would consider an exacta key box, which we win if she finishes first or second no matter which other horse is in the other position. Particularly if Tiny Temper finishes second, this could easily return much more than a place bet of the same total amount. This bet would be: Exacta key box Tiny Temper (7) with all.

Then we can also play exacta boxes keying Tiny Temper with the two favorites as follows:

Exacta boxes Tiny Temper (7), Comparative (4) and Tiny Temper (7), Hot and Sultry (6)

Additionally, Bellamore offers good return for the risk on these exacta tickets:

Bellamore (2) over Comparative (4), Hot and Sultry (6), Tiny Temper (7) andalso

Comparative (4), Hot and Sultry (6), Tiny Temper (7) over Bellamore (2)