Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 10 | Post Time 5:27 PM Eastern

Mamzelle Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $225,000 | Three Year Old Fillies | Five and One-Half Furlongs on Turf

 

Analysis:

Pace Discussion and top contenders:

With fourteen entered, plus two also-eligibles, including at least four and possibly six, need-the-lead types, the early lead is going to be hotly contested, and the pace will be hot. Although Shisospicy (9) was able to lead from start to finish four weeks ago in the very similar Limestone Stakes at Keeneland, in a 12-horse field, there’s no quarter for the filly this time as drawn inside of her are need-the-lead types Bunratty Manor (7) and Mechaya (5), both who earned their only wins leading from start to finish. Add Lovely Emma (13) to the mix, who has led after a quarter mile in all four of her starts, and possibly Mighty Eriu (2) and Dreamaway (6) and we have the scenario for a pace meltdown of epic proportions, which, barring traffic trouble, benefit a quartet of fillies handsomely.

Civetta (12) leads the group of top win contenders as she cuts back from a two-turn turf stakes race at the end of March where she flew home from eighth to miss winning by a length. The last time she sprinted on grass she nearly won the Grade 3 Matron Stakes in New York at six furlongs and the ONLY time she ran this five and one-half furlong turf distance, she won. She enters the race off a field high 102 Equibase Speed Figure effort and if able to repeat that may be the one to beat, opening at 8 to 1 odds.

Abientot (3) was the horse that beat Civetta by a neck in the Matron Stakes last fall, having rallied from 11^th of 12 to get up in time. She didn’t want to go two-turns the next month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was last of 14. Given five months off she returned in the Limestone Stakes, won by Shisospicy, rallying from 10^th to third and likely to get second with one more stride. Making her second start off the layoff and it with it being highly unlikely Shisospicy, or any front runner, will be allowed an easy lead here, Abientot has a big shot to run back to her Matron Stakes effort last fall and win.

It Ain’t Two (8) was making her U.S. debut, and her first start after five months off, in the Limestone Stakes last month but despite those two potential obstacles she rallied fast from seventh to finish a nose behind Abientot in a dead heat for fourth with Me Governor (14). Geroux gets on for the first time and the filly, who won four of 12 on turf in England before importing to the U.S., can improve markedly off the experience of a race. Similarly, Me Governor wasn’t disgraced one bit with her effort in the Limestone, particularly following a runner-up effort in the similar Melody of Colors Stakes I March after four months off. She won the Stewart Manor Stakes in New York last November, running as well as both Civetta and Abientot did over the turf at Aqueduct, so she round out the main contenders to win this pretty wide-open race.

Bets:

Win: We should strongly consider betting both Civetta (12) and Abientot (3) at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Considering they start at odds of 8 to 1 and 5 to 1, respectively, there is every reason to bet both, even though only one can win, to make a profit.

After that, we should consider win bets on It Ain’t Two (8) and Me Governor (14) at odds of 5 to 1. They open at odds of 10 to 1 and 12 to 1.

Exactas:

Box: Abientot (3), It Ain’t Two (8), Civetta (12) and Me Governor (14).

Additionally, since any of the “early” speed types are not without a chance to hang on for second:

Abientot (3) and Civetta (12) over ALL.