Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 13 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

William Walker Stakes | Purse $225,000 | Five and One Half Furlongs on Turf | Three Year Olds

Main contenders:

The Palisades Stakes was run four weeks ago at Keeneland and it was nearly identical to this race as it was five and one-half furlongs on grass and restricted to three year olds. Six of the eight entered in this race ran in that race, won by Gaslight Dancer (2) at 6 to 1, with Two of a Kind (3) second at 50 to 1. I think those two deserve top honors here but also believe Two of a Kind deserves preference and can turn the tables on Gaslight Dancer. This is because Two of a Kind was making his first start on turf following five on dirt. Not only can he improve off the experience of a race on grass, he ran extraordinarily well when rallying seven paths wide and making up ground to be only a length and one-half from Gaslight Dancer when the wire came. Two of a Kind was third in three stakes before that, all this year, and won the Tremont Stakes last year on dirt in only the second start of his career after winning his debut last May. He’s bred to adore the turf and opening at 6 to 1 offers much more value for all win bets as compared to Gaslight Dancer, who opens at 2 to 1.

Gaslight Dancer (2) has won two turf sprints from three he’s run in and he was beaten a neck for the win in another. He was coming back from five months off when winning the Palisades Stakes last month and Gaffalione rides back so there are no knocks except low odds.

Ah Jeez (8) has upset potential and I’m not really sure why he opens at 15 to 1 but plan to take advantage of those high odds hold up. He started his career on turf last year and won in his second career start in California at five furlongs, then after three stakes tries, two around two turns (too far for him), he cut back in distance and won nicely last November. Once again he stretched out to a mile and ran badly in stakes, but those are mostly irrelevant as his turf sprints are mostly all we should care about. He then went to Dubai and won a seven furlong sprint on dirt before (AGAIN) he was mistakenly stretched out to two-turns, and finished last of 13 in the U.A.E. Derby. Now he’s back on grass and sprinting and has big shot to run better than his high odds suggest based on those similar turf sprint efforts last November and August.

Bets:  

Win Bets: Two of a Kind (2) to win at 5 to 2 or more. I would absolutely also bet Ah Jeez (8) to win at 4 to 1 or higher odds. Exactas: Box Two of a Kind (3), Gaslight Dancer (2) and Ah Jeez (8)