Race 13 at Laurel | Saturday, May 16 | Post Time 7:01 PM Eastern

Preakness Stakes | Purse $2 Million | One Mile and Three-Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

Top Win Contenders: Incredibolt (12), The Hell We Did (7), Ocelli (2)

Other contenders: Taj Majal (1), Crupper (3)

The Preakness is about to see a pace as fast and as early as in the Kentucky Derby, where the first fractions (22.6 for the first quarter and 46.44 at the half) were sizzling from the gate.

Some of those with early speed are on the outside, including Pretty Boy Miah (14), Corona de Oro (11), and Napoleon Solo (10). Those horses will need to run fast to save ground on the first turn. Also pressing are Great White (13), Iron Honor (9), Chip Honcho (6), Robusto (4), and possibly Taj Mahal (1).

That certainly helps the closers. One of them is Incredibolt (12), who started 13th in the first quarter of the Kentucky Derby, was 11th after the quarter pole, then moved to the middle of the track, where he was shoulder-to-shoulder with Renegade from the three-sixteenth until just past the eighth pole. Incredibolt passed five horses in the stretch and finished ahead of many others. In the Virginia Derby on March 14, Incredibolt sat fifth at the quarter pole, moved to second at the eighth, and drew clear to win by four lengths. Now he shortens up to a similar distance in the Preakness. Incredibolt earned the same 95 Equibase Speed Figures in both his recent races, and I think he can run his career best in the Preakness and win.

The Hell We Did (7) won his 2026 debut on March 15 (in his third race), a sprint, by 13 lengths, earning a 95 figure. He then ran in his first two-turn race in the Lexington Stakes in April, where he battled head-and-head from the quarter to the eighth, finishing second to Trendsetter, who passed both him and Corona de Oro. In the March 15 race, The Hell We Did moved from fourth, eight lengths behind, to fifth, to the win. Jockey Luis Saez rode him for the first time in the Lexington and will ride him again. I believe The Hell We Did will not get into an early battle this time and will finish better. This horse is a half-brother to many stakes horses, including Senor Buscador (7 wins from 23 races, $12 million), Runaway Ghost (8 for 13, $780,000), and Sheriff Brown (10 wins from 35, $635,000). The Hell We Did has a pedigree to love this distance, and at 15 to 1 odds, he has a big chance to finish first or second.

Ocelli (2) finished third in the Kentucky Derby, making a strong rally from 10th to second at the eighth pole and fighting to the finish. He was only three-quarters of a length behind Golden Tempo and Renegade. Ocelli is still getting faster, and his figures have gone from 85 to 87 to 99. On March 14 in the Virginia Derby, Ocelli made a big rally to a half-length behind at the eighth pole but couldn’t sustain his finish kick and lost to Incredibolt. He then finished third in the Wood Memorial on April 4, before the Derby. Ocelli has never won in seven starts, but he has finished fourth or third. He should be used in exactas and trifectas, and for a win bet because the 99 figure is the best of any horse in the Preakness.

Taj Majal (1) is going to take money because he is undefeated in three races. Each of his races has been faster, from 85 to 93 to 97. In the Federico Tesio on April 18 at Laurel, he led the race from the start, the same way he won his previous race, both routes. He rallied from sixth in his career debut, but that was in a sprint. I am not sure Taj Majal will rally as he did in his first race or lead as he did in his last two. From the rail, he may have to use his speed to keep the 13 other horses behind him, but if he gets into a good position and doesn’t go too fast, he has a shot.

Crupper (3) has won twice in six starts. He won the mile-and-one-eighth Bath House Row Stakes on April 18, the same distance as Incredibolt in the Virginia Derby, earning Crupper a career-best 91 figure. On February 6, in his first win, he stalked, but the pace was slow, so he may not be a horse that can go to the lead in this race. Junior Alvarado rode Crupper in his last race, and he fits the horse well. Considering this horse starts at 30 to 1, I would consider him in exactas and for small win, place, and show bets.

Win bets: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher, and I won’t hesitate to bet both horses.

Ocelli (2) at odds of 5 to 5 or higher.

Crupper (3) at odds of 10 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7) over All.

Exacta box: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7), Ocelli (2), Taj Mahal (1), Crupper (3).