Race 13 at Pimlico | Saturday, May 17 | Post Time 7:01 PM Eastern

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $2 Million | One Mile and Three Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

Analysis and win contenders in preference order:

After having watched the replays of the most recent races of all nine Preakness entrants, I believe Goal Oriented (1) is the one most likely to succeed. In doing so, he would give trainer Bob Baffert his ninth career win in this race. Baffert won his first Preakness in 1997 with Silver Charm, and his most recent win came two years ago with National Treasure. Goal Oriented is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice, but his most recent race, in the third race on Kentucky Derby day, tells us all we need to know about this talented colt. In that race, Goal Oriented came out of the gate in fourth in a 10-horse field but moved up easily though not in a rushed fashion, making the lead and then continuing in front at every point of call. Even though his three-quarter length margin at the finish was less than his one and one-half length margin earlier in the stretch, by all appearances he was never going to be caught. The 109 Equibase Speed Figure Goal Oriented earned in the race was higher than the 103 figure Sovereignty earned winning the Kentucky Derby later that same day, and as the Preakness will be only the third start of his career and second around two turns, Goal Oriented should run even better. Drawing the rail for the Preakness gives jockey Flavien Prat lots of options in terms of the early pace, as Goal Oriented is not a need-the-lead type as evidenced by his come from behind debut win at Santa Anita in April. Considering Clever Again (8) won the Hot Springs Stakes leading from start to finish I suspect he will get to the front at the start. Additionally, early speed is the best weapon American Promise (3) has to offer and so he too may go for the lead after the gate opens. That puts Goal Oriented in second or third but on the ground saving rail, allowing him to draft off the early leaders and pass them when necessary to gain the win.

Clever Again (8) is tied for the second fastest last race in the field, with Heart of Honor (4), having earned a 108 Equibase Figure winning the Hot Springs Stakeson March 30. That was his second win in as many starts this year, the other also earned when leading from start to finish one month earlier, with a 100 figure. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for both wins and rides Clever Again in the Preakness so the same tactics which resulted in wins will likely be used again. With few of the horses inside Clever Again (who drew post position eight) having shown a desire to lead early in a race, the colt should be able to get to the front before the first turn, unless Goal Oriented or American Promise have other ideas. Like Goal Oriented having run faster than Sovereignty on Derby Day, the 108 Equibase Figure Clever Again earned winning in the Hot Springs Stakes was higher than the 104 figure Sandman (7) earned winning the Arkansas Derby later the same day, and his pattern suggests further improvement as well. Trainer Steve Asmussen won the Preakness in 2007 with Curlin and in 2009 with Rachel Alexandra and has a strong chance to earn his third win in this race if Clever Again can get to the front easily and control the early tempo.

It is quite difficult to rank Journalism (2) as the third most likely contender to win this year’s Preakness, particularly considering how visually impressive his Kentucky Derby effort was. Moving up quickly from 10^th to third over the course of the third quarter mile while making up seven and one-half lengths on the leader, Journalism was one-half length behind the front runner and continuing to accelerate, as well as was ahead of eventual winner Sovereignty, but was out kicked by that one in the final stages. Put another way, in the Derby at the point the Preakness ends, Journalism was just behind Sovereignty and well clear of the next horse. With Sovereignty passing this race and with the cut back to near the distance of his win in the Santa Anita Derby, where he earned a 108 Figure, Journalism would be no surprise to win the Preakness.

Honorable mention goes to Heart of Honor (4), who has never finished worse than second in six races, including when a nose shy of winning the United Arab Emirates Derby on April 5 with a 108 Figure. Although Admire Daytona, who won that race, finished last of 19 in the Kentucky Derby, Heart of Honor may run better as he showed a lot of mental and physical ability when moving up from seventh in that race, battling with Admire Daytona and another horse for the final quarter mile and was rallying at the end to miss my inches. Another horse worth noting is Sandman (7), who may also benefit from the cut back in distance, particularly as the 104 figure he earned winning the Arkansas Derby was very good and his rally from 18^th to seventh in the Kentucky Derby after a bit of traffic trouble and going wide was also a pretty good effort, all things considered.

Bets:

Win:

Goal Oriented (1) is the first horse to consider for a win bet, at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Next, we can consider a win bet on Clever Again (8) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Journalism (2) would also have minimum/fair odds of 5 to 2, but it is highly unlikely his odds will rise to that level so we can make a profit if he wins in exacta wagers below.

Exactas:

Box Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8) and Journalism (2).

Also, Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8) and Journalism (2) over Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8), Journalism (2), Heart of Honor (4) and Sandman (7).

Trifecta:

Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8) and Journalism (2) over Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8), Journalism (2), Heart of Honor (4) and Sandman (7) over Goal Oriented (1), Clever Again (8), Journalism (2), Heart of Honor (4) and Sandman (7).