Race 6 at Pimlico | Saturday May 20 | Post Time 1:29 PM Eastern

Chick Lang Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $200,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds

Main contenders: Frosted Departure (3) and Ryvit (2)

Frosted Departure (3) opens at 8 to 1 and it is my strongly held belief the colt has at least a 25% chance to win so should be 3 to 1. As such he offers excellent value for win bets and in exacta bets, also likely also in double wagers, pick 3 and the all-stakes pick 4 which starts in this race. Odds should stay high on Frosted Departure as well, because in his most recent race he finished fourth, whereas the 8 to 5 starting favorite Havnameltdown (1) not only finished second in the $15 million Saudi Derby in when last seen and won four of five before that, he is trained by Bob Baffert. The 3 to 1 second morning line choice is Super Chow (5), who is undefeated in five races at this six furlong trip, including five stakes in a row going back to October, and who won at odds of 1 to 5 and 4 to 5 in his two most recent races.

Back to Frosted Departure, who had been running in longer races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in January and February such as the Southwest Stakes (third) and Rebel Stakes (fourth), and now cuts back to his best trip, sprinting. The reason is prior to those two he won the Renaissance Stakes at this six furlong trip and was very game in doing so, battling head-and-head the entire length of the stretch to prevail. He broke his maiden last summer in a sprint in his second career start then two later won by nine lengths in another sprint. Frosted Departure returned from a little over two months off just 14 days ago in the one-turn Pat Day Mile on Derby day and his fourth of 13 finish does not really tell the story, but watching the race does.

In the Pat Day Mile, after bobbling and nearly going to his knees at the start, Frosted Departure moved up quickly to fifth, then to third on the inside. As the horse in front of him was tiring badly the colt drifted back to seventh, then when finding a hole in the stretch he rallied again for third but the top had drawn away by three lengths by then. At that point hockey Hernandez, Jr. basically rode the horse out as he knew he wasn’t going to win and he was beaten three-quarters of a length for third. Today Frosted Departure faces six fewer horses, drops from grade 2 to grade 3, gets a change in jockey to Flavien Prat and perhaps most importantly gets a very logical pace battle up front a big late kick. This is because Havnameltdown has been no farther back then second after a half-mile in all six races and draws the rail but has other speed to contend with in Super Chow, who has ONLY been first at the half-mile in all six races. Adding to the mix is Prove Right (6), who has had the lead at the opening quarter and half-mile in his last three starts, and the cheap but speedy Bristol Channel (4) and the setup is in play for Frosted Departure to roll past the field and win in a slight upset.

That being said, Ryvit (2) is not without a chance and may have first run on Frosted Departure when the field hits the stretch. We can completely forget his first three starts, two in 2022 and the first of this year in February, as all were without blinkers first worn for his March 25 start.  A completely different horse that day Ryvit won easily by two lengths then in his next start he relaxed early in fifth of nine then poured it on to win by two lengths. His most recent effort came in the Bachelor Stakes on April 29 at this six furlong trip and this time Ryvit led from start to finish. Now a perfect three-for-three at six furlongs when wearing blinkers and proven capable of taking a back seat to the early speed as is needed in this race, this colt has a big shot to win this race as well and opening at 7 to 2 odds offers value for win bets in doing so. 

As mentioned, even though Havnameltdown (1) is a multiple stakes winner and has won four of six starts, as well as is trained by Bob Baffert, a combination of having a lot of early speed and drawn on the rail with other early speed types in the field make him a vulnerable favorite. Similarly, Super Chow (5), although five-for-five at six furlongs and also a multiple stakes winner, does not seem capable of being in front at the half-mile and three-quarter marks of the race after vying for the lead and still holding off the closers Ryvit and Frosted Departure. Nevertheless, both Havnameltdown and Super Chow might stick around for second or third so can be played on exacta and trifecta tickets if we so choose, as well as Prove Right (6), who is likely to go to post at near his 15 to 1 starting odds.

Bets:  

Win Bets: Frosted Departure (3) is a KEY bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

I could be persuaded to also bet Ryvit (2) at odds of 2 to 1 or more, because it appears the top two morning line choices are vulnerable.  

Exactas: Frosted Departure (3) and Ryvit (2) over Frosted Departure (3), Ryvit (2), Havnameltdown (1) and Super Chow (5).

Trifecta: Frosted Departure (3) and Ryvit (2) over Frosted Departure (3), Ryvit (2), Havnameltdown (1) and Super Chow (5) over Frosted Departure (3) and Ryvit (2), Havnameltdown (1), Prove Right (6) and Super Chow (5).