Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 24 | Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Half on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and win contenders in preference order:

This mile and one-half marathon is most likely to be won by horses with positive experience at the distance on turf, with emphasis placed on their most recent efforts at the trip. Considering both Boss Lady Bailey (7) and Sugaree (6) won their most recent races at this mile and one half distance on grass, they rise to the top of the class, so to speak, closely followed by Holy Foley (3), who finished a nose and a head behind Boss Lady Bailey in that marathon on turf a little over one month ago.

Boss Lady Bailey (7) had only run farther than one mile and one-quarter on grass twice in her first 18 races, winning a mile and three-eighths race at the non-winners of 1 other than maiden (NW1X) allowance level last July at Saratoga, then finishing fifth last October at Keeneland at the second allowance level. Moved to the barn of Mike Maker after that, she ran fourth twice in a row once at a much shorter distance on grass, then on all-weather. Neither race was very relevant when she entered a second level allowance (NW2X) race at this 12-furlong turf trip on April 18, and the return to the grass and distance was when she needed to succeed, posting the upset at 21 to 1 odds under Luis Saez, who returns to ride in the Keertana. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure is the best last race figure in the field and although it is unlikely she will go into the gate anywhere near 20 to 1, she may still be a good bet to win as that win last month may be considered a fluke by some bettors, but not by me.

Holy Foley (3) was 10 to 1 when coming up inches short of winning that race five weeks ago at Keeneland, won by Boss Lady Bailey, and as she did not win, her odds may be high again, particularly as she’s moving up from stakes company off a defeat. She likes these longer grass races, evidenced by a win 13 months ago at the trip at the NW1X level, by a half-length defeat when second at the NW2X level last September, and by the near miss at that same level last month. She had returned from five months off in March when fourth and improved significantly second off the layoff last month, so she also has potential to run even better in her third start of the year.

Sugaree (6) also won a 12-furlong turf race at Keeneland last month and she too can run similarly well again. However, whereas Boss Lady Bailey won a second level allowance (NW2X), Sugaree won a first level allowance (NW1X) and that could be a bit of a separator between the two mares. Additionally, Sugaree earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure, so would need to improve a bit more than Boss Lady Bailey if the latter repeats her last effort. On the other hand, Sugaree imported to the U.S. last fall and was coming back from an eight-month layoff in her U.S. debut in February, when finishing sixth. She improved nicely to finish third in March and then won in April so the kind of improvement necessary to run better than Boss Lady Bailey is not out of the question.

On some exacta and trifecta tickets, we can include Tarneema (2) and Marksman Queen (5). Tarneema ran evenly in the stretch when third behind Sugaree last month and was second for the length of the stretch at one mile and three-eighths prior to that. Marksman Queen led from the start and finished second last fall at this distance and has finished third or fourth in three of four races since, in each losing ground to the leader in the final eighth of a mile.

Win Bets:

Boss Lady Bailey (7) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Holy Foley (3) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Sugaree (6) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

I would not hesitate to bet two of the three above to win if above minimum odds.  

Exacta Bets:

Box Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3) and Sugaree (6).

Boss Lady Bailey (7) over Holy Foley (3), Sugaree (6), Tarneema (2) and Marksman Queen (5).

Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3) and Sugaree (6) over Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3), Sugaree (6), Tarneema (2) and Marksman Queen (5).

Trifectas:

Boss Lady Bailey (7) over Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3), Sugaree (6), Tarneema (2) and Marksman Queen (5) over Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3), Sugaree (6), Tarneema (2) and Marksman Queen (5).