Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 3 | Post Time 4:50 PM Eastern

Derby City Distaff Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward | Seven Furlongs

 

Analysis:

The starting favorite is Ways and Means (8) at 3 to 1 and the starting second favorite is Scylla (1) at 4 to 1. In my opinion, NEITHER horse is as probable to win as those odds suggest. Neither is Vahva (7), who won the 2024 Derby City Distaff.

The reason all three above have less chance to win then their odds suggest is that ALL THREE horses have not run since November 2, six months ago, when they finished fourth, fifth and eighth, respectively, in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. The starting odds may bey correct, as people betting around the world see that race as the top race in North America for female sprinters. If this was January, or even February, I might agree that any of those three can run good enough to win, but NOT AFTER FIVE MONTHS OFF, at this distance of seven furlongs which necessitates horses be in top shape. Considering Vahva finished second off a similar layoff in April of last year, Scylla finished second (in a non-stakes race) off a similar layoff, and Ways and Means was also second off a similar layoff last year, and that none of their trainers have strong records of winning with horses at seven furlongs off layoffs of six months or more, I am comfortable looking for the main contenders elsewhere.

With three of the lower odds horses being a bit vulnerable, this becomes a potentially very profitable betting race.

Top contenders:

Kopion (2) comes back from three months off and WON the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes off an eight-month layoff in December, at this seven-furlong trip. She won the Santa Monica Stakes on February 1 at the same distance, and she won the first start of her career so we know she can run good enough to win following a layoff. She earned 109 and 111 Equibase Figures for her two wins this year, in similar graded stakes, at this distance, and before leaving California with Hall-of-Fame trainer Richard Mandella, Kopion put in a very strong series of morning workouts. Mandella RARELY if EVER ships out of California and to be sending this filly to Kentucky shows a lot of confidence, which I can’t argue with one bit.

Positano Sunset (11) just won the local prep for this race, the Grade 1 Madison Stakes, on April 8, at odds of 14 to 1, yet she starts at 12 to 1 odds here impossible to ignore, the same odds as Kopion. Like Kopion, Positano Sunset is two-for-two this year, with both wins at seven furlongs, and her figures of 102 then 106 in those races suggest another “A” effort is forthcoming. Last year’s Madison winner finished second in the Derby City Distaff while last year’s Madison runner-up won this race.

This year’s Madison Stakes runner up is Emery (9), who although beaten by Positano Sunset last month opens at half the odds, 6 to 1 compared to 12 to 1. This may be due to her overall consistency, as she has finished worse than second just once in nine career starts. Emery won the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at this distance last year at Churchill Downs, and she led in the Madison in the stretch before Positano Sunset asserted herself at the end, so this horse has no knocks whatsoever and can improve off that last effort as this will be her second race since coming back from two and one-half months off.

My Mane Squeeze (13) has won six of 14 races, including the Eight Belles Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day last year, at the distance of this race. She’s wo just one of seven since, but that one was ALSO at Churchill Downs and at this seven-furlong distance. She won that race by five lengths with jockey Luis Saez in the saddle, who rides her here after she finished third in the Madison Stakes. She may have needed that race as she had been off for almost six months before that. Likely to improve off the effort and not needing a race like Vahva, Ways and Means and Scylla might before running well enough to win. My Mane Squeeze is yet another horse to give us a profit on bets in this race as she opens at 12 to 1 odds.

For exactas in the second position, in a deep field, a case can be made for Hope Road (12) and Grand Job (15) as contenders. Hope Road has finished first or second in seven of nine races including two behind Kopion. Grand Job has finished first or second in seven of eight races.

Bets:

Win:

Kopion (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Positano Sunset (11) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I would not hesitate to bet both Kopion and Positano Sunset if above that threshold.

Emery (9) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

My Mane Squeeze (13) at odds of 8 to 1 or more.

Exactas

Kopion (2) and Positano Sunset (11) over ALL.

Box Kopion (2), Emery (9), Positano Sunset (11)and My Mane Squeeze (13).

Kopion (2), Emery (9), Positano Sunset (11) , and My Mane Squeeze (13) over Kopion (2), Emery (9), Positano Sunset (11), Hope Road (12), My Mane Squeeze (13), and Grand Job (15).