Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 30 | Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern

Blame Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth | Four Years Old and Upward

Top Win Contender(s): Original Sin (6), Rattle N Roll (1)

The Blame Stakes serves as the local prep for the $2 million Stephen Foster (GI) on Saturday, June 27. Among the eight horses, there are three I am not interested in, even for second in exactas. Those three are Hall of Fame (2), who finished fourth in the 2025 Blame Stakes and has since finished fourth and seventh. Capital Idea (4), although he finished second in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes, didn’t improve in his recent race, where he finished sixth. Who Dey (5) doesn’t have the class for this race, as his last three wins came in October 2025 and October 2024, in an Ohio state-bred stakes and an allowance win in May 2025. He has since finished fourth and third.

One of the favorites is Hit Show (3), who earned $9.4 million and won 12 of 25 races. However, his last race was the Dubai World Cup on March 28 this year, and it is tough to make a horse run halfway across the world and then run back to the U.S. to its best. Last year, Hit Show won the 2025 World Cup, but he ran poorly in his stateside race, finishing fifth in the Stephen Foster. This year, he is trying again. I would consider him to finish in exactas, as he did in the Clark Stakes in November 2025.

Of the two-win contenders, Original Sin (6) will get to post at higher odds than Rattle N Roll (1) because he is running in a stakes race for the first time. However, Original Sin just won this mile and one-eighth in his last start. That was also the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field for the last race, and it was a career best. He is just a four-year-old, one of only two in the field, and he has a big shot to improve. In his win on April 11, Original Sin started last of seven, then made sixth (five lengths off) at the quarter pole, then his stride got big, and from fifth on the turn, he made it to second, a head behind, at the eighth pole, then won, driving clear by three lengths. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione won his last race and also won last October for top trainer Brendan Walsh, who has over five years, six of 20 starters, with 10 finished first or second, back-to-back winners for Gaffalione in dirt graded stakes. Original Sin should improve, and he can win this year’s Blame Stakes.

Rattle N Roll (1) won the Blame Stakes in 2023. He also won this distance in the Tinsel Stakes in December 2025. He then finished ninth in the Saudi Cup in February. But compared to Hit Show, Rattle N Roll has had a race since. That was in the Ben Ali Stakes on April 18, where he moved too early from sixth to third, then faded to fifth. He has won three other races at Churchill Downs and five of 16 at this distance. He put in a strong workout on May 15, running 47.2, the fifth of 132 on the day. He has come off poor efforts to win again, as he did in the Tinsel. Rattle N Roll gets the rail, as he did in this race in 2023, and he has a shot at his 12th win.

Win bets: Original Sin (6) and Rattle N Roll (1) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

If Rattle N Roll has less than 2 to 1 odds, as I suspect, we should use him on top exactas.

Exactas:

Box: Original Sin (6), Rattle N Roll (1)