Buy TicketsRace 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 31 | Post Time 5:27 PM Eastern
Blame Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $275,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and win contenders in preference order:
Before I get into the contenders, I want to write about the vulnerable starting favorite, Post Time (9). I would never want to be the person who sets the starting odds, or morning line, trying to predict as best as possible what the final odds would be, because it’s a thankless job. I won’t in this case either, but I would be very, VERY, surprised, if the three to one starting favorite, Post Time, is the favorite when the race runs. That’s a GOOD THING, because even if he is not the favorite, he will be bet lower than he should be, which provides higher odds on other strong contenders. The problem with Post Time is that despite a 10 for 16 record, he’s only run this nine-furlong distance once, finishing third at 25 to 1 last summer in the Whitney Stakes. He’s NEVER run at Churchill Downs, and although his trainer, Brittany Russell, wins 30% of her races, she is 0 for 8 at Churchill this meeting and 0 for 9 at Churchill over the last few years. Post Time won a classified allowance race at a mile and one sixteenth four weeks ago at Laurel, following five months off, and although he should improve off that effort, there is nothing in his history to suggest he can win in this group.
On the other hand, Banishing (8) missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day four weeks ago, rallying from last of 11 in the process. He’s won at Churchill Downs, and he has only run once at nine furlongs since Jacobson took over training last August. That effort, one before last in April in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, WINS here if repeated. In that race Banishing stalked in third, made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and tried hard to the end when second to Frist Mission, who would be the odds-on favorite if in this race. Now first or second in NINE straight races, three in which he was beaten a neck or less, and reunited with Flavien Prat, aboard for his win in the Oaklawn Mile and near win in the Razorback Handicap before that, Banishing looks very tough to beat and at the minimum has a very high probability to be in the exacta.
Except for his most recent race, Alexander Helios (2) has proven to be every bit as good as Banishing. He too has won at Churchill Downs, and unlike Banishing and Post Time, Alexander Helios has won at this distance. That win came at Churchill Downs last November, and since then, in five of seven races, he’s run fantastically well. When returning from eight months off in January, Alexander Helios won easily then won the Razorback Handicap in February by a head over Banishing. He didn’t show much interest in running in his only start since, in the Oaklawn Handicap, where Banishing finished second, and I have no problem drawing a line through that race as he returned to Florida and put in a very strong half-mile drill last week in preparation for this race, 47.4, which was the third best of 70 on the day. Although never riding him before, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call, and if able to run back to his Razorback effort, Alexander Helios has every right to win.
Most Wanted (7) has never finished farther back then second in seven races. He won the first four starts of his career last year as a three-year-old, then faced older in the Clark Stakes at this distance at Churchill Downs and led late but was three-quarters of a length from winner Rattle N Roll at the end. Returning off three and one-half months in March, he led from the start but was no match for the much more accomplished Skippylongstocking (who just won the Hollywood Gold Cup in California last weekend) and settled for second Similarly, Most Wanted was no match for Fierceness last month when leading early but run down late in the Alysheba Stakes. If either Fierceness or Skippylongstocking were in this field they would be the odds-on favorites so those two runner-up efforts might be good enough to win here if repeated. On the other hand, Most Wanted’s best efforts are no better than the best efforts of either Banishing or Alexander Helios and he opens at lower odds (7 to 2).
I can’t go on without mentioning 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (4) is in this race, and like Post Time, his 4 to 1 starting odds are out of line given his probability in this deep field. He will be bet however as the public will note he won the Derby as well as another race at Churchill Downs, and he did appear to turn the corner in his form by missing by a nose four weeks ago in the non-graded stakes at Oaklawn, after three poor efforts in a row following his runner-up finish in last year’s Preakness. Like Most Wanted (with a 4-3-0 record), Mystik Dan has a 3-3-1 record, and can be part of the exacta, but considering he has run this distance twice, with his best finish third in last year’s Arkansas Derby, his best effort may not be good enough to win.
Hall of Fame (6) also has a good record, 4-2-1 in nine races, and he’s won at Churchill Downs, but in two of three efforts at this distance (including one at one mile and three-sixteenth) he’s only managed one second place effort.
Post Time (9), as mentioned above, is vulnerable as the low odds favorite, but could hit the board as well.
Win Bets:
I feel very strongly BOTH Banishing (8) and Alexander Helios (2) are excellent win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Banishing (8) and Alexander Helios (2) over Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2), Mystik Dan (4), Hall of Fame (6), Most Wanted (7) and Post Time (9).
Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2) and Most Wanted (7) over Banishing (8), Alexander Helios (2), Mystik Dan (4), Hall of Fame (6), Most Wanted (7) and Post Time (9).