Race 6 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 4 | Post Time 1:14 PM Eastern

Derby City Distaff Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 million | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

This is a phenomenal edition of the Derby City Distaff, a sprint (under a mile) for top females in North America. Combined, these horses have won 52 races and have earned $6 million between them. Alva Starr (7) and Vahva (10) just finished 1^st and 2^nd, respectively, in the identical Madison Stakes four weeks ago, with four long lengths back to the third finisher (Red Carpet Ready, also running in this race).

Both Alva Starr and Vahva were returning from nearly six months off so should run even faster, which they will need to in this quality field. We can compare horses running at different tracks using a SPEED FIGURE, which normalizes for things we can’t see (like the bank of the turns and the moisture in the track) and using that figure Vahva and Alva Starr earned 99 figures in their most recent races, as well as 108 to 109 best figures in 2023 when having run a few times. Both can certainly win, but they are not standouts.

Just as equal in probability are Three Witches (1) and Flying Connection (3), so much so that in my opinion of we could run this race 100 times, all four horses may win about 90 times in 100, but none more than about 25 times in 90. That means the likely odds to win offered on Three Witches and Flying Connection make them potentially profitable bets, particularly as their most recent races were as faster than Vahva and Alva Starr from their most recent efforts.

Three Witches won the Santa Monica Stakes easily in her only race this year, earning a 106 speed figure about as fast as the best efforts Vahva and Alva Starr put forth last year. She won that race off three months off and comes off an identical three-month layoff, making that race (also at the same distance as this one) representative of what he should do today.

Flying Connection won three races in a row from last September through February, then finished second to a powerful five length winner on April 13. Each was better than the previous, evidenced by her figures going from 90 to 99 to 104. She cuts back from two-turns to one turn and that should help her have some extra stamina for the final stages as a horse who has won seven of 13 career races on dirt, with 10 to 1 starting odds, she is very appealing.   

Bets:

Win Bets: Consider Three Witches (1) and Flying Connection (3), either or both, at 7 to 2 or higher odds.  

Exactas:

1, 3 with 1, 3, 7, 10 AND ALSO 1, 3, 7, 10 with 1, 3

We are betting to win if #1 or #3 wins then if any of the other three finishes second, OR, if the opposite occurs. This is called “Splitting the favorites,” because #7 and #10 will be lower odds than the other two and there will be more people betting the exacta for them to finish 1^st and 2^nd. That certainly can happen, but we are trying to maximize our profit if we win by playing other combinations which are likely to pay better if they win. Particularly, if we make both bets and if #1 and #3 finish 1^st, and 2^nd, we win both bets.