Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 6 | Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

American Turf Stakes | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Three Year Olds

Analysis:

In this 14 horse field (plus two also-eligibles) there are a number of horses which have won stakes races on the grass who are likely to offer double digit odds. It remains to be seen whether the morning line odds, which predict what the public will do, will hold up. As it stands going into the race, the three horses with the lowest starting odds are Major Dude (1) at 5 to 2, Carl Spackler (11) at 3 to 1 and Far Bridge (2) at 7 to 2. All three horses are contenders with a chance to win, but their odds are RIDICULOUSLY low in my opinion compared to at least a handful of others with similar records and speed figures. The reason these three horses have low starting odds are identifiable. Major Dude just finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks behind Two Phil’s (running in the Kentucky Derby later on the card) and was list of the top 25 eligible to run in the Derby but the owners (Spendthrift Farms) already have Kingsbarns in the Derby field. Carl Spackler won impressively on turf in his most recent race and is trained by Chad Brown, while Far Bridge also won impressively in his last start and is trained by Todd Pletcher. Just the same, there is more hype than substance surrounding these three and they are no more probable to win than a handful of others.

Contenders to bet:

Johannes (5) is the first of those with a lot of betting value, opening at 15 to 1. He’s won three in a row including two stakes races (the Baffle Stakes and the Pasadena Stakes), with both of his last two wins coming in spite of traffic trouble. He returned from two months off on March 5 to win a turf sprint then stretched out to two turns and won even more easily, with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure better than the 97 & 101 figures Far Bridge has earned, better than the 101 and 93 figures Carl Spackler has earned and better than the 99 and 94 best figures Major Dude has earned. Umberto Rispoli has ridden him three times, winning all three, and the colt is on a pattern to run a new best effort in his third start off the layoff.

Talk of the Nation (4) opens at 10 to 1, and like Johannes he comes off a stakes win. Far Bridge earned his wins in maiden and allowance races and Carl Spackler has just a maiden win to his credit, so the fact both Talk of the Nation and Johannes have stakes winning credentials are significant. When trying turf for the first time on February 4, Talk of the Nation romped by four lengths with a 96 figure, before markedly improving to a 106 figure winning the Columbia Stakes on March 11. Red hot Tyler Gaffalione, coming off winning the riding title at the recently concluded Keeneland meeting, takes the call for Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and there are no knocks on this colt with every right to run well enough to win.

Next we have a horse at even higher odds, Desert Duke (7) who begins at 30 to 1 odds. He missed by a nose in his turf debut in January then two later won nicely with a 95 figure. He ran even better last month at the first allowance level at Keeneland, earning a 105 figure better than the 97 Far Bridge earned in his win at the same allowance level. That 105 figure is HIGHER than the 99 figure Mo Stash earned over the same grass course at Keeneland winning the Transylvania Stakes and higher than the 99 figure Major Dude earned winning the Kitten’s Joy Stakes before finishing second in the Jeff Ruby. In short, these 30 to 1 odds make no sense and practically demand we take advantage by betting this horse, who can win on the lead or from off the pace.

Mo Stash (8) opens at 10 to 1 in spite of winning the Transylvania Stakes, with a fine runner-up effort behind Talk of the Nation in the Columbia Stakes prior to that. Luis Saez has been up for both wins after not riding the colt previously, and is likely to try to get the early lead as that was a successful tactic in the Transylvania and there isn’t really any other “early” speed types inside of Mo Stash in the gate so that goal may work.

Far Bridge (2), Major Dude (1) and Carl Spackler (11) are certainly contenders, but there is no value in combining them on exacta tickets so the strategy will be to use the four horses with high odds and split the favorites, so if we win we win the bet multiple times.

Bets:  

Win Bets: I am absolutely going to bet Johannes (5) and Talk of the Nation (4) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more. I will also consider a win bet for a smaller amount on Desert Duke (7) at 6 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Major Dude (1), Talk of the Nation (4), Johannes (5), Desert Duke (7), Mo Stash (8)

Box Far Bridge (2), Talk of the Nation (4), Johannes (5), Desert Duke (7), Mo Stash (8)

Box Carl Spackler (11), Talk of the Nation (4), Johannes (5), Desert Duke (7), Mo Stash (8)