Race 9 at Del Mar | Saturday, November 1 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade 1 | Purse $7 Million | One Mile and One Quarter | For Three Year Olds and Upward

Top contenders are Baeza (2), Sierra Leone (7)

Contender also is Fierceness (1).

Note: Sovereignty (6) has been scratched.

Analysis and win contenders:

I’m getting to the chase, and any of the nine, except for Contrary Thinking (4), have a chance to win.

Among the others, I am confident that these two - Baeza (2) and Sierra Leone (7) - have a higher probability. I will start with Baeza,the highest odds in a group of contenders. Baeza is on a pattern with three ascending Equibase Speed Figures. His more recent, 116, was also the best recent in the field. This was the same three-figure pattern Sierra Leone earned before the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

In his last race in the Pennsylvania Derby, Baeza put in a three-path move from seventh at the first quarter mark to first at the final eighth, then a mild drive to win. Considering this, Baeza earned a figure of 116, and comparing Baeza to early favorite Sovereignty(not running), who earned his fastest figure of 113 in the Jim Dandy on July 26, and then a 112 in the Travers on August 23. Also, the 116 Baeza earned is the same figure Sierra Leone got in the 2024 Classic. With Baeza opening generously at 15 to 1 odds, he is the horse to look at to win and to consider for a bet.

Sierra Leone has one win and two seconds in his last three tries. In the recent race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes, he had a lot of trouble when rallying from 18 lengths and finished in second, earning 111; he could have earned a figure. Contrary Thinking (same owner and trainer) is in this race, which will help Sierra Leone. With Contrary Thinking likely to go fast early, Sierra Leone has a shot to win the Classic while earning the 116 he had in last year’s Classic.

Fierceness (1) showed in the Pacific Classic that he is ready for this race. He earned a 114 figure in that race, and showed he can close from fourth within to make the lead by two lengths with a half a quarter to run, and was easily clear. In the 2024 Classic, Fierceness could not make any ground in the last quarter against Sierra Leone; he could finish second again, or he could win.

Win Bet: Baeza (2) is a strong contender to win at 3 to 1 or better.

Sierra Leone (7) is a strong contender to win at 3 to 1 or better.

Fierceness (1) is a contender to win at 4 to 1 odds or better.

Exacta:

Box: Baeza (2), Fierceness (1), and Sierra Leone (7)

Baeza (2), Fierceness (1), and Sierra Leone (7) overall all (except Contrary Thinking).