Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, November 22 | Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Commonwealth Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth on Turf | For Three-Year-Olds

Top contenders are Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2), and Giocoso (7)

These horses may be used second in exacta and in trifectas: Mansetti (6), Chapman’s Peak (8), Stimulate (10), and Plensa (11)

Contenders and analysis:

Montador (3) ran top races in his last four races, winning three, and missed by a head in the fourth. Three of his recent races were turf routes, and the last race was his first at Churchill Downs on November 2. This race was at a longer distance of nine furlongs. Montador rallied from fourth at the quarter-mark to draw in front by four lengths. His career best Equibase Speed Figure, 105, on October 5, came in the same mile and one-sixteenth distance as this race, also the best figure for a two-turn turf race of any in the field. Jockey Luis Saez rides Montador for the first time. In the past five years, Saez has 13 wins, in grade stakes and route turf stakes at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, as many as Irad Ortiz, Jr., and Tyler Gaffalione has 12. For this reason, Montador is the most probable win contender.

Troubleshooting (2) won his first two-turn route on turf last month, winning the Grade 2 Bryan Station Stakes on October 25 by a neck. On September 6, he also won the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at a shorter distance. That effort earned him a career best 109 figure, the best of any horse in this field. Gaffalione rode him in both wins and rides him again. He is a strong player with seven career wins and seconds in turf races.

Giocoso (7) finished third in the Bryan Station, his last race, rallying from seventh in the final eighth of the race and finishing third. He broke slowly and was in trouble at the first turn; he might have run better. In the $1 million Gun Runner Stakes on September 6, Giocosa made the lead with a quarter mile, but finished second at the wire. That effort earned a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure, and he can do better. Three races ago, Giocoso won the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes on August 9. So, he rounds the trio of contenders.

Win Bets:

Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2) should consider winning bets at 5 or 2 or higher.

Giocosa (7) should be considered for win odds at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box: Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2), and Giocoso (7)

Box Montador (3) and Troubleshooting (2)

Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2), and Giocoso (7) over Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2), Giocoso (7), Mansetti (6), Chapman’s Peak (8), Stimulate (10), and Plensa (11)

Montador (3) and Troubleshooting (2) over Montador (3), Troubleshooting (2), Giocoso (7), Mansetti (6), Chapman’s Peak (8), Stimulate (10), and Plensa (11)