Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, November 29 | Post Time 5:54 PM Eastern

Golden Rod Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth | Fillies, Two Years Old

Top win contenders are Just Singing (3), Life of Joy (6)

Contenders for second exactas: Explora (12), The Grumpy Rabbit (13)

Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) have about the same probability of winning at about 25% each. Just Singing and Life of Joy both won at Churchill Downs in their last races at this distance on October 26. They ran the same time (1:45.6) and earned similar 84 and 85 Equibase Speed Figures. But, while Life of Joy earned her win in the Rags To Riches Stakes, Just Singing won a maiden race and will have higher odds.

Just Singing and Life of Joy won their races, rallying from the back, and this race in the year’s Golden Rod should have a fast pace in this, because of four “early pace” horses: Essential Coffee (2), Letmecouttheways (5), Rasberry (7), and Coco Connect (10).

Just Singing and Life of Joy have not lost velocity in the final three-eighths, which is compared to most horses, and as evidenced by Life Joy running 36 mph (using GPS) from three-quarters to the last eighth, and 35 mph from the eighth to the finish. Compared to Just Singing, who ran better at 37 mph from the three-quarters mark to the finish. That makes them the best finishers and the two top win contenders.

As to Explora (12) and The Grumpy Rabbit (13), both have possible poor post positions. They need to get ahead before the first turn or go wide. Explora won the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes on October 4 and finished second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Juvenile Filly Stakes in November, with the highest 99 Equibase Figures among the field. Grumpy Rabbit led the Rags to Riches Stakes, but she had no chance against Life of Joy when she kicked away. Still, Grumpy Rabbit was three lengths ahead of the third horse.

Win Bets:

 Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) are both considered winning bets at 3 or 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) over Just Singing (3), Life of Joy (6), Explora (12), and The Grumpy Rabbit (13)