Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, November 8 | Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Dream Supreme Stakes | Purse $300,000 | Six Furlongs | For Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

Top contenders are Mink’s Palace (9), Halina’s Forte (10), R Disaster (7)

Analysis of the pace of the race:

Hillerito (4) has the top pace in the field. She has run seven races, and in every race, she has been in the lead for the first quarter and has led the half mile. She won five of those races. In her most recent race, a third allowance class (one level below the Dream Supreme Stakes), she had an easy lead at the quarter-mark and finished in second, but has never been in a stakes race. Starting on the rail, Sudden Switch (1) will have more early speed and will press the pace, with Taliesin (2), Jersey Pearl (3), and R Disaster (7) also putting on pressure.

Contenders

Mink’s Palace (9) and Halina’s Forte (10) both have good outside positions, and both are capable of nice bids to get first or second at the finish line. Mink’s Palace has won four races in his career, coming out of nine tries at Churchill Downs. Halina’s Forte has won three races at Churchill Downs (of six career wins). Mink’s Palace has a better chance to win because she ran in the identical Open Mind Stakes on September 13 at this track, where she circled a four-wide path at the quarter mark to run, moving from fourth to leading by the eighth mark and battling to the final, losing by a neck. She may run better at six furlongs, where she won the Roxelana Stakes on April 26. Mink’s Palace, ridden by Saez, who has ridden her three times over 13 months. Those include a second by a head in the Open Mind, winning the Roxelana, and winning in September 2024. These show how Saez and Mink’s Palace really connect.

Halina’s Forte (10) was tough in her last two races. In the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes (August 23) and the Grade 2 T.C.A. Stakes on October 4. Although she finished seventh, the second in the T.C.A., Vahva, finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint one week later. Two other T.C.A. horses also ran in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Halina’s Forte is a better fit in this race. Three races previously, Halina’s Forte won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Stakes (July 20), after starting in fifth, she rallied to win. That kind of race would get a big win in this Dream Supreme Stakes.

R Disaster (7) has run a top-earning career. She has seven wins and five seconds in 12 career starts.

She led wire-to-wire in six of her wins. R Disaster can run off a fast pace, she relaxed at the quarter and half of the Grand Vagrancy, then after taking the lead, lost by a neck. When R Disaster faced Halina’s Forte, she had to fight for every yard and finished half a length behind. R Disaster is likely to get the favorite odds, and is a contender. If we can’t bet her to win, she should be included in exactas.

Win Bet: I put all three contenders - Mink’s Palace (9), Halina’s Forte (10), R Disaster (7) – at have fair odds of 5 to 2 or better. I would bet one or two at the odds near post time at 5 to 2 or higher.  

Exacta: Box: Mink’s Palace (9), Halina’s Forte (10), R Disaster (7)