Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday, August 11| Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $800,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Win contenders in preference/probability order:

Simmering (3), Fionn (9)

Contenders at second in exacta:

Candy Quest (6), Laurelin (2)

Analysis and win contenders:

Simmering (3) made her U.S. first start as a European filly, off a grade three stakes most recent, and finished third. She led from the start, and although the winner was by a three-length margin, she gave way and was overtaken by the second horse by a neck. Simmering, who finished third in that last race, the winner in Better Together is a strong winner in three stakes. In the third of four races, Simmering also finished third in the Group 1 Guineas in May, resulting in her best Equibase figure of 117. In that race, Simmering rallied from last to third in the first field of 10. Simmering is a good bet at 12 to 1starting odds.

Fionn (9) is the favorite of the U.S. contingent. She has won three successful graded stakes. Her last three wins were finishing fast from the eighth at the last. Her previous three Equibase figures were 106, 105, and 105, so she feels in sound and ready to run well in another top race. She is one of the favorites; on the other hand, she has only won her last three races, leading by a half-length or more. And there are others having better odds near the time this race comes near post time.

Candy Quest (6) won her previous race last with a big kick from seventh to win, earning a 94 figure, but she ran her career 104 when rallied by Fionn just a half mile. In that race, Candy Quest put in a strong rally from 12th place, while Fionn rallied to ninth, allowing Candy Quest to take the lead at the quarter mark, but ultimately got beaten by Fionn at the end. Still, Candy Quest has her 12/1 starting odds at 3/1 for Fionn, and that has a shot. 

Laurelin (2) starts as the favorite, mostly because she has five wins in her started races. She early won her 102 career best figure in her last race. She has a shot, but is not a standout of that kind.

Win Bet:

Simmering (3) has Fionn (9), who should be considered for winning bets if their odds are 5 to 2 or more.

If Candy Quest (6) has fair for considering win for win odds at 4 to 1, especially if Fionn her odds are lower than 5 to2 odds.

Exactas: I will any other exacta between the two favorites (Fionn and Laurelin) in a box exacta, so the plays would:

Simmering (3), Fionn (9), Candy Quest (6)

Simmering (3), Candy Quest (6), Laurelin (2)