Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday, October 17 | Post Time: 4:12 PM Eastern

Perryville Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse: $350,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Years Old

Top Win Contender(s): Roscoe’s Brother (4), Deep Flame (12), Doublecents (10)

Roscoe’s Brother (4) won both his races, first his maiden, then an allowance race with a field of 10 horses. In that race he led wire to wire and ran every quarter fast, with times of 21.8, 44.4, 56.2 and finished in 1.08.8. That was the same time the top three-year-old colt Englishman set in North America in his second career start last March. Englishman finished second in the Pat Day Stakes in May, then won two straight Grade 1 races, the Woody Stephens and the H. Allen Jerkens. Englishman will be running in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in two weeks.

Roscoe’s Brother made his debut in August, so he isn’t yet good enough to beat a quality horse like Englishman. However, Roscoe’s Brother’s excellent California trainer, Mark Glatt, ships him to test the waters in Kentucky in this Grade 3 Perryville Stakes, and his jockey, Emisael Jaramillo, journeys to ride again. Roscoe’s Brother earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure, even higher than the heavy favorite, Deep Flame, who earned a career-best 111 figure when he was beaten by nearly four lengths by Englishman. If Roscoe’s Brother has another “A” race, he can pull off the upset.

Deep Flame (12) has won twice and finished second three times in five races. His two recent races were stakes races at this seven-furlong distance, one win and a second. His win was the Grade 3 Maxfield Stakes in June. He won by nearly six lengths and earned a new career-best figure of 105. In his last race, the Jerkens Stakes, he finished second to Englishman, earning a 111 figure. However, he was second from start to finish as Englishman ran the field on the lead. The same will be true with Roscoe’s Brother in this race. Deep Flame is a good horse and has more races in his career, so he could rebound to win, but his starting odds are going to be lower than Roscoe’s Brother’s.

Doublecents (10) has won three of six races, and the only race when he finished worse than third came on a sloppy track. He just won two races, including the Harrods Creek Stakes at this distance. He earned a new career-best figure of 102. He certainly has a chance if he is also improving. 

Win bets:

Roscoe’s Brother (4) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Deep Flame (12) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Doublecents (10) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Box Roscoe’s Brother (4), Deep Flame (12)

Box Roscoe’s Brother (4), Deep Flame (12), Doublecents (10)