Race 6 at Keeneland | Saturday, October 18| Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

Perryville Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $350,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Years Old

Contenders in preference/probability order:

Taylor’s Version (2)

Analysis and win contenders:

I almost skipped this year with only six horses, with a favorite at 6 to 5, Captain Cook (5), and a second favorite, Barnes (3),starting at 5 to 2 odds. When I think about it, I find Taylor’s Version (2) has something worthwhile.

Taylor’s Version (2) has won two dirt sprints in a row. Ignoring the dirt race in his debut and one race on turf. His last two wins were wire-to-wire. His recent race earned a strong 108 Equibase Figure, as good a chance as any to win against the 108 figure as Captain Cook, the favorite (6 to 5), but Taylor’s Version opens at 6 to 1 odds. And he can run even stronger off his last recent effort.

Captain Cook (5) won his second race last December and his third race in January. Then he placed forth and third twice in succession.  Captain Cook last on 8/23, his last stakes race, while leading by half a length with a quarter mile to go, but he was outfinished by a nose by the winner. Before that, Captain Cook also lost his three previous races and lost ground in the eighth to the finish. Captain Cook's last race earned a strong 108 Equibase Figure; however, Taylor’s Version opens as a much stronger bet at 6 to 1 versus 6 to 5 for Captain Cook.

Barnes (3) was a 2 to 5 favorite last month and was a non-contender in that race. He was 10^th early, with a rally to fourth. In his last race before, he ran poorly but rallied from sixth to third. His best race was back in January, and yet, the morning line in this race is 5 to 2. Also, trainer Baffert has one Grade Three dirt race with three-year-olds outside of California, and has won 15 similar races over three years.

Win Bet:

Taylor’s Version (2) is a strong contender to win at 2 to 1or better.