Race 11 at Keeneland | Saturday, October 31 | Post Time: 5:36 PM Eastern

Breeders’ Cup Turf Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse: $5 Million | One Mile and One-Half | Three-Year-Olds and Upward

Top Win Contender(s): Tiffany (10), Ethical Diamond (1)

Five fillies or mares have won the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and there are four fillies or mares entered this year. They are Johanna Walsh (9), Survie (11), Diamond Necklace (12), and Tiffany (10). All four horses have won Group 1 or Grade 1 stakes.

However, I feel Tiffany is the best among the quartet. First, Tiffany already has a race in the U.S., and two of the other three are making their first U.S. starts. Survie won the Clement Christophe Turf Stakes (against males) and the Glens Falls Stakes both in August, but then she went to France and finished 10^th before coming back to the U.S.

Tiffany (10) won both her recent races against males. The first of those races was in Germany in August, where she battled and won by a neck. The other was in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs in September, when she beat Ethical Diamond (1) by nearly two lengths. Tiffany finished second in her other two races this year, and she hasn’t finished worse than second in her last seven races back to November 2024. Her jockey, Luke Morris, has ridden her in every race except one of her 19 starts, including eight wins (and seven second-place finishes). Tiffany is in top condition and starts at 10 to 1. She has a big shot to win her third straight top-class races.

Ethical Diamond (1) ran his second U.S. start in the Turf Cup, when he finished second behind Tiffany. His other stateside race was when he won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf at 27 to 1. Ethical Diamond won one before that at a one mile and three-quarters distance with a $674K purse. His record at this one mile and one-half distance is 4-1-0 in eight starts. His best came last year on a firm course, which is where this race will be run. Jockey Dylan McMonagle rode him last year and returns this year. Ethical Diamond won his second race back at this distance, and he should peak in this race. Historically, 13 winners have won at odds of 6 to 1 or better, and nine winners paid more than 10 to 1. Ethical Diamond starts at 10 to 1. I would bet on Ethical Diamond and Tiffany at those odds.

There isn’t a horse in this year’s race that I think has no shot, so with two top contenders at decent odds, we could make a profit on exactas by taking the top spot and the second spot.

Win bets:

Ethical Diamond (1), Tiffany (10) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Ethical Diamond (1), Tiffany (10) over ALL, and (the opposite) ALL over Ethical Diamond (1), Tiffany (10).