Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday, October 4 | Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

T.C.A. Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders in preference/probability order:

Praying (6), Halina’s Forte (3), Zeitlos (7)

Contenders at second in exacta:

Vodka With a Twist (4) and Vahva (5)

Analysis and win contenders:

Praying (6) offers strong value at 12 to 1, as I estimate her true chances closer to 25% at odds like 7 to 2. She won the Grade 3 Prioress at Saratoga in her latest race, which was her most recent victory, earning a career-best 102 Equibase figure—higher than any of the other six entrants. Praying (6) has demonstrated consistency against Vahva (5), the morning-line favorite, who finished second last out with a 101 figure.

Vahva (5) excels at longer distances, winning or placing in 15 of 17 races at 6.5 or 7 furlongs, but only ran six furlongs once.

Halina’s Forte (3) also won the Grade 2 Honorable at Saratoga, earning a 103 figure at six furlongs, in the same race as Praying (6), which she won. She finished seventh in the Ballerina, but I am choosing to disregard that performance.

Zeitlos (7) won the 2024 T.C.A. with a 94 figure. After resting last May, she returned to win the Skipat with a 101 figure. Recently, she finished third, then second, and then fifth, although the last two races were on turf. Notably, she also won this race last year after finishing fifth on the turf, suggesting she may follow a similar pattern this year.

Vodka With a Twist (4) has a win and a second in her only two six-furlong races. She also finished second in her most recent start, earning a 101 figure. In what was her best effort, she led in a seven-furlong race but was passed by the eventual winner.

Win Bet:

Praying (6), Halina’s Forte (3), and Zeitlos (7) should all be considered for winning bets if their odds are 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Praying (6), Halina’s Forte (3), Zeitlos (7) over Praying (6), Halina’s Forte (3), Zeitlos (7), Vodka With a Twist (4), and Vahva (5)