Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, September 12 | Post Time: 5:29 PM Eastern

Iroquois Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse: $300,000 | One Mile | Two-Year-Olds

Top Win Contender(s): Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2), Salahudin (7)

Real Gone (9) is one of six horses who have won their last race. Only Blessed Flyer (2) and Salahudin (7) have won stakes. Real Gone won easily by eight lengths on August 22, and he isn’t an “early” pace type, unlike most of the other horses. He was third early, took the lead at the half, and widened. Since then, he has put in four excellent workouts, including a 47.8 on September 1 at Florida. His trainer, Patrick Biancone, won a stakes race at Kentucky Downs on September 7 with jockey Keith Asmussen (who rides Real Gone today); that horse, Leigina, worked the same distance on the same day as Real Gone. Also, Real Gone is the third of the dam (mother); the other two are stakes winners. Real Gone starts at 12/1, as opposed to 8 to 5 on Salahudin and 9 to 2 on Blessed Flyer, so Real Gone is my top pick.

Blessed Flyer (2) won the Bashford Manor Stakes on June 28 at Churchill Downs, where he earned the best Equibase Speed Figure of the field, 95. He won his other race on April 16 and earned an 85 figure, also among the best in the field. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode him in that race and rides him today. He rallied from fifth, six lengths back after the first quarter, was second, four lengths back at the eighth pole, and surged to get ahead by a head. Blessed Flyer has been off two months since his Bashford Manor win, but he had also been off two months between his first race and Bashford Manor. He worked the best of 38 five furlongs a week ago at Churchill Downs, which means Blessed Flyer is ready to win again.

Salahudin (7) won his first two races, with the most recent being the Juvenile Stakes on August 9. He earned an 86 figure, the second-fastest in the field. He doesn’t need the lead, as he stalked in fourth in his career start and ran third early in the Juvenile. Salahudin is going to improve, but he opens at 8/5 because his trainer is Bob Baffert. Although he can win, either of the other two horses can, too.

Win bet: Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2), and Salahudin (7)