Race 10 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday, September 5 | Post Time: 6:49 PM Eastern

Music City Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse: $1.5 Million | Six and One-Half Furlongs | Fillies, Three-Year-Olds

Top Win Contender(s): Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10), Cy Fair (1)

Among 16 entries, including four also-eligibles, and although 14 horses have won at least one stakes race in their careers, only two horses have won a turf sprint this year. One of them is Cy Fair, who starts as a 6-to-5 favorite, and the other is Somerset West, who starts at 20 to 1. Cy Fair has a record of 5-1-1 in seven starts. Somerset West has a record of 2-2-0 in five races. Breaking this down further, Cy Fair has a 3-1-1 record in five stakes races, whereas Somerset West won her only stakes race.

Somerset West has already won at this distance, one race before her last, earning her career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 100. Cy Fair has never run six and one-half furlongs. In her race, Somerset West bided her time in fifth on the turn, then she turned on the jets to win easily. She moved up in class to the San Clemente Stakes on July 18, where she made an eye-catching move, going from 10th at the quarter pole to pass nine other horses to win, earning a 102 figure. Her recent workout was excellent: four furlongs, 47.2, the fifth of 111 at the distance that day. Somerset West gets Luis Saez, who has ridden just twice this year for trainer John Sadler. The trainer and jockey combination have had two horses race this year, both shipping from California. One horse won and the other ran second, both in sprint stakes. Somerset West has way too high odds, but she is a great win and place bet.

Sapphire Beach finished second on April 10, a neck behind the winner and half a length ahead of Cy Fair, earning a career-best 109 figure.She then won on May 31 with a 102, and she finished second behind Cy Fair in the Coronation. In that race, Sapphire Beach came out a bit at the start, bumped Cadenza (who finished third), went to the lead, and was still a half-length in front before the sixteenth pole when Cy Fair blew by, earning a 102 figure. The third- and fourth-place finishers in the Coronation both won their races since then. Sapphire Beach's best races came when she was third early, as in the Limestone, and second early in her win in May, so she may be a stalker, and that gives her a shot.

Cy Fair is the prohibitive favorite because she won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last fall, beating mostly males. Cy Fair was off for five months until April, coming back as the heavy favorite in the Limestone Stakes, where she led from the start but faded to third, beaten by the second-place finisher, Sapphire Beach. Since then, she has won her two races this year, the Mamzelle on April 30 and the Coronation. However, all of her races have been at five and one-half furlongs. This will be her first try at going six and one-half furlongs. When a prohibitive favorite is trying something for the first time, there is no good way to bet this horse. Yes, Cy Fair can win, but in this race, there are many other bets to play.

Win bet: Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Box Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10), Cy Fair (1)