Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday, June 6 | Post Time 4:52 PM Eastern

Woody Stephens Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Years Olds

Top Win Contender(s): Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5)

Exactas in second: Obliteration (2), Englishman (7)

Civil Liberty (8) just earned his first win (in his fifth race), the only horse in the field to win his maiden recently, which is why his starting odds are 10/1. However, Civil Liberty ran as fast in his last race, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure, as Crude Velocity (6) did when winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile five weeks ago. Civil Liberty was apparently a good horse in the barn of trainer Doug O’Neill in his early career. He finished second in his debut, then last summer was entered in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity for his second start and finished third. He stretched out to two turns in the American Pharoah Stakes, where he ran fourth at the start and finished fourth. Then, the colt was turned out for the fall and winter.

Starting his three-year-old campaign on March 7, Civil Liberty entered a sprint, where he stalked third and took the lead by a length at the eighth pole before being beaten by a neck by Crude Velocity, who had raced a month earlier, compared with five months for Civil Liberty. On April 12, in his second race off the layoff, Civil Liberty won easily and improved at the same distance as the Woody Stephen. He is likely to improve in his third race off the layoff and has a chance to pull off the upset.

Crude Velocity (6) might have been my top pick, but he opens as the favorite, versus 10/1 on Civil Liberty. He is unbeaten in three races, and his second effort back earned a stellar 116 figure. He stalked in second from the start to the eighth pole, then took the lead and won easily. In the Pat Day Mile, Englishman (7) led easily from the start but lacked the kick Crude Velocity showed. Today, there is even more early speed in this race, with Six Speed (3) (who led the Kentucky Derby for the first six furlongs) and Taj Mahal (9) going for the lead. Crude Velocity, Civil Liberty, and Solitude Dude will set up shop in third, fourth, and fifth. If Crude Velocity runs back to his April 4 effort and neither Civil Liberty nor Solitude Dude improves, Crude Velocity wins this race.

Solitude Dude has won all four of his one-turn races. His only two-turn race was decent, the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28, when he stalked in second early, took the lead at the turn, and was still in front at the eighth pole, but finished behind Commandment and Chief Wallabee. Put another way, in that race, Solitude Dude would have won if it had been this distance. He shortened up to this seven-furlong trip and won the Bay Shore Stakes on April 18. His figures in his last three wins, all stakes, were 94, 96, and 101, so his best effort can also win.

Win bets: All three contenders, Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), and Solitude Dude (5), can be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. I would consider two of the three at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5) over Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5), Obliteration (2), Englishman (7)