Race 6 at Aqueduct | Saturday February 1 | Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern

Toboggan Stakes | Purse $175,000 | Three Year Olds and Upward | Seven Furlongs

Analysis and top contenders:

Nelson Avenue (6) enters the race having won three of five since Wayne Potts took over his training last summer. He finished second in another of those five and his only bad race came when badly overmatched in the Cigar Mile Handicap. He ships in off a romping 11 length win at this seven-furlong trip at Parx but he won at Aqueduct in September and missed by a length when second here in the Forty Niner Stakes in October so has no problems running well at Aqueduct. Lezcano rode him at Parx last time out, likely to get used to him with this race in mind, and the 111 Equibase Speed Figure, which is by far the best earned by any horse in this field, ever, was no fluke as he earned 103 to 108 figures in his three races for Potts in August through October.

The other horse with some probability to win is Coastal Mission (4), a warrior with 14 wins in 26 career starts and five runner-up finishes as well. Like Nelson Avenue, Coastal Mission has one win and one runner-up finish at Aqueduct, the win coming when beating Nelson Avenue by a length in the Forty Niner Stakes in October. Jockey Bocachica accompanied Coastal Mission to New York for that win and rides back, and with 107 figures in three of his last five races there is little doubt this horse can win as well.

Both Maximus Meridius (1) and Full Moon Madness (2) can be considered for third on trifecta tickets and second on at least one exacta ticket. Compared to the top two, whose combined record is 20 for 41 on dirt, these two have records of 4-4-1 (in 13 starts) and 3-2-2 (in 10 starts) so are a cut below the top two in terms of their probability to win. Maximus Meridius just won the Gravesend Stakes on December 28, at six furlongs, with a 103 figure over the track at six furlongs and has won at six and one-half furlongs but does not run as well at this seven-furlong trip. Similarly, Full Moon Madness has run this distance or a one turn mile four times, finishing second once and third once, although he did win the only time he ran six and one-half furlongs. He was second in the Gravesend and can run well but appears unlikely to win.

Bets:

Win Bets:

Nelson Avenue (6) at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Coastal Mission (4) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas: Nelson Avenue (6) and Coastal Mission (4) over Nelson Avenue (6), Coastal Mission (4), Maximus Meridius (1) and Full Moon Madness (2)

Box Nelson Avenue (6) and Coastal Mission (4).

Trifecta: Nelson Avenue (6) and Coastal Mission (4) over Nelson Avenue (6), Coastal Mission (4) over Nelson Avenue (6), Coastal Mission (4), Maximus Meridius (1) and Full Moon Madness (2)

Race 7 at Aqueduct | Saturday February 1 | Post Time 3:46 PM Eastern

Withers Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Eighth

Analysis and top contenders:

Global Steve (1) has dominated in two starts, although the second wasn’t as impressive on paper as the first. However, visually that second win, which came in the Future Stars Stakes on December 30 at Parx, was very impressive. He improved from a 76 Equibase Figure first time out to 85 second time out and the projection to 94 makes him tough to beat. He gets the rail and has tactical speed and there is little doubt about getting nine furlongs as he’s a half-brother to Cagliostro, who finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, a Derby prep like this race, in 2023, then third that summer in the Indiana Derby. Trainer Reid won this race last year with Uncle Heavy at nine to one with Sanchez aboard, who rides Global Steve, off a stakes win at Parx just like Global Steve won last out. Furthermore, Reid has good success with shippers to New York as he’s won with seven of 28 (25%) over the past five years.

Mo Quality (5) finished a game second in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month to Coal Battle, who had won the Springboard Mile prior to that so had more stakes experience than this colt who had just broken his maiden. He’s improving and is another worthy of respect as he makes his second start in a two-turn race. Still, his best figure of 89 one back before a 78 figure last out suggests he may prefer a one-turn race better than this two turn one.

Omaha Omaha (7) finished second of seven in the Jerome Stakes last month, a one turn mile over the track. He made up eight lengths in the last half mile which suggests the extra eighth of a mile here may suit him. However, it is often the case that closers at a mile find themselves even further out of touch at nine furlongs, so he may be kept to a minor award again. Just the same, Omaha Omaha won at a mile and one-sixteenth around two turns before the Jerome, although he was also 10 lengths back after a half mile. He improved from a 74 figure three back to 85 two back to 91 last out and could take another step forward.

Uncle Steve (4) and Captain Cook (6) could complete the trifecta by finishing third. Uncle Jim finished third at a mile after a win at seven furlongs and is improving but likely not this good yet, while Captain Cook broke his maiden by nine lengths at seven furlongs last out in the second start of his career, first for Dutrow, and could also make his presence felt for a minor award.

Bets:

Win Bets:

Global Steve (1) at 3 to 1 or more.

Mo Quality (5) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Omaha Omaha (7) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Box Global Steve (1), Mo Quality (5) and Omaha Omaha (7)

Global Steve (1) over Mo Quality (5) and Omaha Omaha (7)

Global Steve (1) over Uncle Jim (4), Mo Quality (5), Captain Cook (6) and Omaha Omaha (7)