Race 13 at Fair Grounds | Saturday February 15 | Post Time 7 PM Eastern

Rachel Alexandra Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | Fillies, Three Years Olds | One Mile and One Sixteenth

Analysis and top contenders:

Simply Joking (6) may be a standout in this seven-horse race on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks,” although Good Cheer (2) must be respected except for the question mark of returning from a layoff since November 30 as compared to Simply Joking having run just four weeks ago. Simply Joking was so highly regarded she made her debut in a stakes and broke her maiden in that race on December 21 at the distance of six furlongs. Making her second start four weeks later on January 18 in the Untapable Stakes, Simply Joking led from the start and coasted home to a two and one-half length win, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure she is very likely to improve upon in her second route and third career start. She won her debut from off the pace, does not wear blinkers, and so jockey Torres has the option of taking the lead from the start if none of the other horse wants it, or sitting off the pace then rallying. I think he will opt for taking the lead considering none of the other six are stretching out from sprints or have shown a desire to lead early in a race. From there, it’s “Come Catch Me” which should be the winning tactic.

Good Cheer (2) is unbeaten and untested in four races, all two-turn races, the last two stakes races at this distance at Churchill Downs including the similar Golden Rod Stakes where she moved up quickly from fifth after a half-mile, to second, before drawing off. She has been in front with an eighth of a mile to run in ALL FOUR races and no horse has made any impact on her late. Trainer Cox is well above average at bringing a horse back successfully from 60 to 90 day layoffs in routes, and that’s a plus for this filly who has been away 11 weeks (77 days), but just the same her Equibase Speed Figures of 94, 94 and 89 are not that superior to Simply Joking’s 91 in her first route, which she should improve upon, and considering Good Cheer will very likely go to post at lower odds, she’s not nearly as good a win bet as Simply Joking.

Bets:

Win Bets: Simply Joking (6) at odds of 3 to 2 or more, a potential low odds overlay win bet.

Doubles: Simply Joking (6) in race 13 with American Promise (1), Jonathan’s Way (2), East Avenue (4), Giocoso (8) and Built (9) in race 14.

Simply Joking (6) and Good Cheer (2) in race 13 with American Promise (1) in race 14.

 

 

Race 14 at Fair Grounds | Saturday February 15 | Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Eighth

Analysis and top contenders:

Having led from start to finish from the rail in earning his first victory in late December, I am 100% certain the plan was to send American Promise (1) to the front from the seven post at the start in the Southwest Stakes on January 25 and play “come catch me” from that point onward. However, to quote from Robert Burns, “The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” Such was the case when American Promise stood in the gate when it opened for less than a second, but that was more than enough time for him to lose any chance of using the strategy of leading from the start. Instead, the colt moved up quickly to be fifth after a quarter mile then second after a half mile, before tiring significantly from the mis-expenditure of energy. For the Risen Star, American Promise gets the rail, the same as in his victory in December, where he earned a very strong 102 Equibase Speed Figure, higher than the 100-figure likely favorite Jonathan’s Way (2) earned winning the Iroquois Stakes last September and higher than the 99 figure East Avenue (4) earned winning the Breeders’ Futurity last October. Making the case that his effort in the Southwest can be ignored due to the bad start, and that the effort and field high 102 figure one race before that may be repeated, this suggests American Promise is a strong contender. Additionally, American Promise is out of the dam Tapella, by Tapit, who produced multiple stakes winner Hoosier Philly, who has earned more than $950,000 to date. The jockey change to Keith Asmussen doesn’t hurt either, as he and Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas teamed up to win the Bugler Stakes at Oaklawn a few weeks back and last year they won the Honeybee Stakes (a Road to the Kentucky Oaks race) at odds of 28 to 1.

Built (9) may have a slight edge over Jonathan’s Way and over East Avenue, as he ran four weeks ago as compared to 11 weeks ago for Jonathan’s Way and 14 weeks ago for East Avenue. Built had returned from 12 weeks off on December 21 to win the Gun Runner Stakes, earning a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure, then four weeks later in the Lecomte, Built rallied strongly from sixth to miss by a neck at the wire, although his figure regressed to 84. For the Risen Star, Built gets a jockey change to Luis Saez, and in the event American Promise can’t lead from start to finish, Built appears to have what it takes to go past in the stretch for the win.  

Aside from trying to win a two-turn race following 11 weeks off, Jonathan’s Way (2) may still be a strong contender. He won in his debut last August at six furlongs rather easily with an 89 figure, then improved to a career best 100 figure when victorious in the Iroquois Stakes four weeks later. Following a poor effort when seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile though well backed at five to one odds, Jonathan’s Way closed out his freshman campaign pretty nicely when rallying for second behind easy winner First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to earn an 88 figure. Trainer Bauer has really gotten the colt into top shape recently, with two excellent workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. The first of the two was the best of 40 at the distance of five furlongs and the more recent was the third best of 126 on the day at four furlongs. Those suggest this talented colt will put forth a top effort in this race but considering the time off it still may not be good enough to beat the top two contenders.

Like Jonathan’s Way, East Avenue (4) won in his debut, also a sprint, with a 91 figure, before improving to a 99-figure effort winning the Breeders’ Futurity in October. Sent to post as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, East Avenue stumbled at the start and lost all chance to fulfil the likely plan of leading early in the race, never making any headway thereafter. Freshened since then, it appears likely that this is a prep for the Louisiana Derby next month, although certainly the connections want him to run well. Given that East Avenue draws the four post and American Promise gets the rail, it is unlikely the instructions given jockey Tyer Gaffalione will be to engage with American Promise in the early stages, but East Avenue may take up a stalking position and be a factor to the finish in this race.

Giocoso (8) ran as fast as the top contenders in this race when last seen on November 8, but on turf, earning a 98 figure with a visually impressive rally from seventh to win by three-quarters of a length. His other win, last August, also came on turf, and in his one dirt route start he finished third behind Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois, beaten seven lengths for the win. Just the same, he’s more mature now as a three-year-old, has a good late kick and is bred to run okay on dirt so perhaps at decent odds he could complete the exacta.

Bets:

Win Bets: American Promise (1), Built (9) and Jonathan’s Way (2) all have minimum odds of 3 to 1 because I believe if this race were run 100 times, these three would win 75% of the time, so 25% each which equates to 3 to 1. I’m confident American Promise will be above those odds near post time and perhaps Built as well so I would not hesitate to bet both to win in that situation.

Exactas: American Promise (1), Built (9) and Jonathan’s Way (2) over American Promise (1), Built (9), Jonathan’s Way (2), East Avenue (4) and Giocoso (8).