Race 10 at Aqueduct | Friday, February 6 | Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern

Withers Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth | Three Year Olds

Top winning contenders are Mailata (5), Schoolyardsuperman (2), Ottinho (3)

Analysis and Contenders:

Mailata (5) is the only horse in the field already a stakes winner, and he won twice. He has three successive wins after his first two career starts. In the first of the three on October 29, he led from start to finish, earning a 79 Equibase Speed Figure in his first and only route. He cut down to seven furlongs and won the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes with an 85 figure, also leading from the beginning. He stepped into the “open” Future Stars Stakes where he started third in the first quarter mile, then won by 19 lengths, earning an 83 figure, but could have been faster. Jockey Mychel Sanchez has been on Mailata in all wins, riding for trainer “Butch” Reid. This tandem won the 2024 Withers with Uncle Heavy at 9 to 1.

Trainer Chad Brown has two nice horses in Schoolyardsuperman (2) and Ottinho (3), with both colts running in the Withers off their maidens. Schoolyardsuperman won the fastest of the field, earning a 95 figure, easily winning by nearly six lengths. He gets the rail, but he isn’t a “need the lead” type and is going to improve as the distance gets longer on the Road to the Derby.

Ottinho won a nine-furlong race, the only horse to have won this distance. He earned a 93 figure and was game from start to finish when he had to battle head-to-head from the last quarter mile to the end. This colt by dam Quiet Giant, who has one full sibling stakes winner, Pretty Ana, winner of the 2024 Comely Stakes at this distance, and half-brother to the incomparable Gun Runner ($16 million). Ottinho should win a lot of money in his career. Brown won the Withers Stakes in 2021 (Risk Taking) and 2022 (Early Voting), where both Colts were running in their maiden races. Brown did not have entrants in the last three years. Schoolyardsuperman and Ottinho each have an equal probability of winning with Mailata.

Bets:

Mailata (5) is the best value, as the other two contenders are going to be the favorite and second favorites, so I will bet Mailata at fair odds of 5 and 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Mailata (5), Schoolyardsuperman (2), Ottinho (3)

And also, two additional exacta boxes: Mailata (5) and Schoolyardsuperman (2) and also this box of Mailata (5) and Ottinho (3)

Trifecta:

Box Mailata (5), Schoolyardsuperman (2), Ottinho (3)

Race 11 at Oaklawn Park | Friday, February 6 | Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern

Southwest Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One-Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top win contenders are D’Code (2), Strategic Risk (9), Litmus Test (5)

Other contenders for second in exactas: Silent Tactic (11), Buetane (3)

Analysis and Contenders:

D’Code (2) won his debut on December 14 at Oaklawn, leading early and controlling the race all the way to win by four lengths, ridden out, meaning he could have won easier. He earned an astonishing 117 Equibase Speed Figure for a two-year-old. Drawing the two post helps him to get the lead again, especially with jockey Luis Saez riding him for the first time, as Saez has a clock in his head that can maintain the lead all the way to the wire.

Strategic Risk (9) won the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 3 at Oaklawn, a prep race for the Southwest, at the same distance. He stalked the leader from the start, then took over at the eighth pole and finished four lengths ahead. He earned a 90 figure, but he has improved, winning his second race straight at this distance, on November 19, with an 85 figure, also taking a stakes race. Both of his recent wins came with jockey Javier Castellano, the only times he rode Strategic Risk, and if he improves again, he has a chance to win.

Litmus Test (5) won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes on December 13 and is likely to be the favorite. He won the race with Juan Hernandez riding. Litmus Test earned a 101 figure, making him the second-best horse in the field. However, his previous efforts included a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (November 31) and a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (October 4). He could win again or run poorly, but if he wins, trainer Bob Baffert would earn his third Southwest victory, having won it in 2022 and 2023.

Silent Tactic (11) rallied from eighth to finish second in the Smarty Jones behind Strategic Risk, and as he has finished first and second in other races, he has a shot to be second again.

Baffert also trains Buetane (3). Buetane finished second in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last September, then placed second in the San Vicente Stakes (January 10) after a five-month layoff. He was no threat to the winner, So Happy, in a five-horse field. He has yet to show a rally stride, but he could finish second again in his first two-turn attempt.

Bets:

D’Code (2), Strategic Risk (9), Litmus Test (5) at fair odds of 5 and 2 or better, and I would bet on two horses at 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

D’Code (2), Strategic Risk (9), Litmus Test (5) over D’Code (2), Strategic Risk (9), Litmus Test (5), Silent Tactic (11), and Buetane (3)