Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 5 | Post Time 5:38 PM Eastern

Kelso Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Top contender: Think Big (3)

Other contenders: Neat (1), Mountain Bear (6), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5)

Think Big (3) drops in class after a troubled seventh-place effort in the much tougher Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes four weeks ago on this course. He was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite on the heels of two straight graded stakes wins, in the Shakertown in April and in the Turf Sprint on Derby Day in May. Jockey Ben Curtis had ridden the horse to all five of his wins to that point, in nine races, including the two stakes wins, but I the Jaipur Think Big had a very awkward start then was wide and did not show the form he had going back to last September. Curtis is replaced by Jose Ortiz for the Kelso, and no knock-on Curtis, but this is a very positive change considering how familiar Ortiz is with this course. Think Big has never run two-turns on grass previously but is bred for the distance in spades and the 108 and 113 Equibase Speed Figure efforts earned in the Shakertown and Turf Sprint are very good and would be very competitive in this field if repeated, so he gets top billing.

Neat (1) may offer some value, particularly for exacta tickets played, as he did not finish in his last race and finished fourth, sixth, seventh and third in four races prior to that. In that last race, the Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness day, Neat had stalked a head off the lead for the first half mile before he was steadied and taken up sharply to avoid falling, losing all chance. Last August, Neat won the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at this distance over this inner turf course at Saratoga, under Junior Alvarado, who did not ride the colt in his last three races but returns to the saddle today for a potential return to top form. Considering the colt’s record is six for 14, with no seconds or thirds, and three of those wins were in stakes, Neat may be a horse worthy of a few dollars to win at more than decent odds.

Mountain Bear (6) finished a decent second of 11 in a highly rated allowance race at Churchill Downs, won by Nantasket Beach (5), with Mountain Bear possibly having potential to leapfrog over his rival as he had been away from the races for nearly eight months prior to that. Nantasket Beach was winning for the second time in a row, and for his fourth in his last five races, in that May 25 race, and has potential to run competitively on the step up in class today. Donegal Momentum (4) won the Grade 3 Poker Stakes last month and now has five wins in 10 races. Castellano has been aboard for all his “A” races and another one would be no surprise in this situation.

Win Bets: Think Big (3) can be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 odds or more.

Neat (1) could offer upset potential and can be considered for a win bet at 7 to 2 odds or higher.

Exactas:

Think Big (3) over Neat (1), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5) and Mountain Bear (6)

Neat (1) and Think Big (3) over Neat (1), Think Big (3), Donegal Momentum (4), Nantasket Beach (5) and Mountain Bear (6)

 

Race 11 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 5 | Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern

Belmont Oaks Invitational – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top contenders: May Day Ready (6), Nitrogen (7)

Other contender: Totally Justified (3), Fionn (5)

The first time May Day Ready (6) and Nitrogen (7) faced each other was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November. May Day Ready went to post at 13-1 odds based on her winning the Jessamine Stakes one month earlier for her third straight win in three career starts. Nitrogen went to post at nearly 50-1 odds, owing to the fact she was still a maiden with two starts under her belt. Nitrogen had missed by a neck in her career debut at a mile on grass in August then finished third in the Natalma Stakes in September. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready rallied from 12^th of 14 at the start to finish second, beaten one and one-half lengths, while Nitrogen rallied from 12^th after three quarters of a mile to get third, one length behind May Day Ready. For those efforts, May Day Ready earned a 111 Equibase Speed Figure while Nitrogen earned a 110 figure.

After that, May Day Ready travelled half-way across the world to compete in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes in Japan, finishing 12^th of 18 when well-regarded at 8-1 odds. Taking six months off, May Day Ready returned in the Wonder Again Stakes four weeks ago at Saratoga, a race scheduled for grass but run on dirt, and decimated by scratches such that only three horses ran. Nitrogen won that race by 17 lengths over runner-up Bessie Abbott, with May Day Ready another eight lengths back. However, May Day Ready needed the race following six months off, and the effort shouldn’t be used to assess her chances to win the Belmont Oaks Invitational as it is obvious her connections were always pointing for this race as well as the Wonder Againwas the best way to prepare her for this one. Considering the talent shown last summer and fall and that she beat Nitrogen the only time previously where they faced each other on grass, May Day Ready gets slight preference in terms of probability to win this year’s Belmont Oaks Invitational.

After the Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall, Nitrogen won four races in a row, all stakes, including the Appalachian Stakes this past April where she earned a 108Equibase Speed Figure close to the 110 figure from the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Returning one month later in the Edgewood Stakes, Nitrogen won easily by three and one-half lengths, earning a 99 figure which could have been higher had she needed to run harder. Next came the Wonder Again, where Nitrogen stalked the pacesetter for the first half mile then took over and coasted home with a 105 figure. She certainly could have run faster than that as she was geared down in the stretch, and if she improves back to the form shown last fall, we could see quite a battle between her and May Day Ready in this race.

Totally Justified (3) missed by a nose to May Day Ready last fall in the Jessamine Stakes but ran poorly when eighth in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at odds of 47-1. Following five months off, she faded to fifth after pressing the pace in second in the early stages of the Appalachian but returned to competitive form last month when second in the Regret Stakes, run at the distance of the Belmont Oaks Invitational. In that race, Totally Justified moved up from third to second after three-quarters of a mile, then made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, before being passed by Fionn and ending up second, beaten a half-length. This being her third start off a layoff, Totally Justified is going to be tougher to pass in the stretch than in her last race, and so she can improve off that 105 figure effort to likely have a say in the outcome in this race as well. 

Fionn (5) earned a career best 106 figure when winning the Regret Stakes last month at the distance of this race. She has now won four of six races and has room to run similarly well. On the other hand, when considering the Regret was a Grade 3 race and that May Day Ready and Nitrogen are Grade 2 stakes winners, and Totally Justified missed by a nose in a Grade 2 race (the Jessamine) last fall as well as can improve third off the layoff, I think Fionn is just a cut below the top trio.

Win Bets: I would bet May Day Ready (6) or Nitrogen (7), whichever is the higher odds of the pair, to win at 3 to 2 or more.

I might also consider a win bet on Totally Justified (3) or on Fionn (5) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

May Day Ready (6) and Nitrogen (7) over May Day Ready (6), Nitrogen (7), Totally Justified (3) and Fionn (5)