High-end $62,500 claimers match up in this about 7-furlong affair. Favorites are 6-23 in CLM races this Fall Meet with an average winner 6-1 odds, so while 8-5 morning line chalk Ghazaaly would be no surprise to win as he did in his only other Kee raid, it’s fair to shop a bit.  Trainer David Jacobson tries to make Tarantino the only 2-time winner at the meet while stepping up in class mildly. We’ve had 23 Fall Meet open claiming races for $50,000 or higher pricetags since returning to dirt in Fall 2014, and these have been very honest races in terms of returns (avg winner 9-2 odds, favorites won 8-23). A slight cut-back in distance has been effective at this class level and 7F trip, 4 of 7 shortening the distance off their most-recent prep. Give 7F ace rider Luis Saez every chance with Colonial miler Break Out on the cutback from a positive, outside draw.

Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters make a rare 5-1/2 furlong dirt dash appearance in the late pick 5 kickoff leg. We’ve only had 5 such races offered in Fall Meets, the last of which came in 2023. As you might suspect with young dashers, Wesley Ward won 2 of those 5 races and will have rookie Tarkanian in the hunt. Note both of Ward’s winners in these spots did have experience (though 2 of 5 winners were debut runners for other barns). Bob Baffert debuts the Justify colt Justico and should be well-backed by the public. I was mixed vibes watching the workout videos despite the fast times. Baffert did win a debut 2YO here in the Fall of 2022 with Arabian Knight’s unveiling at 3-5 odds. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 10 wins at the meet include 6 with 2YO MSWs like this and 3 by offspring of first-crop sire Jackie’s Warrior. Enter TV Time Out for a second chance at the meet after battling up top here opening day and now getting a shorter trip.

The $300,000 Myrtlewood Stakes matches 2-year-old filly sprinters over 6 furlongs in the first leg of the $3 Late Pick 3. This race has been run 5 times since its 2021 debut, making it one of Keeneland’s youngest stakes races. All 5 winners were 7-2 or less odds with 3 favorites. The average winner is 1 length off the lead after the first half-mile with no winners closing more than 2-1/2 lengths from that point. The Churchill September meet has produced 4 of the 5 winners, which points to runners like Miss Anna, Cruisin in Harmony and my top pick Elewene. The move here to money rider Jose Ortiz matters in a race like this and trainer Dale Romans’ runners at Kee Fall Meets tend to run to expectations. Sire Jackie’s Warrior has had a fantastic meet with his first crop of 2YOs and will be repped by Rescue Dawn, while Girvin can say the came and has Miss Anna here. Trainer Brad Cox won this stakes in 2022 and 2023 and looks for another with Angel of Kirk, who was third last out behind eventual Alcibiades runner-up Summer Starlet.

The finale is a 1-1/16 miles maiden special weight on dirt for elders and serves as the Toyota Super High 5 race. We have 29 such elder MSW dirt routes in the Fall Meet in our database and while favorites underperform at 8-29, the average winner is only 4-1 odds, shorter than average of all divisions. Over 2-29 winner topped 8-1, one of those coming during this meet when a category-high 13 upsetter occurred Oct. 15. Todd Pletcher’s 3 wins in such races are most of any barn and he’ll have Sesasi here. Pletcher has been strong with the Saratoga to Keeneland dirt MSW transitions over the years, winning earlier this meet with Damavand, who is pre-entered now in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Interestingly 5 of the 10 entrants in this race are sons of Gun Runner, whose overall Kee dirt route numbers are terribly weak despite high-profile stakes winners like Further Ado, Sierra Leone and Locked.