Jeremy Plonk is the owner of Horse Player NOW, the racing industry's leading fan education and player development website and creator of the Night School program. He has been a Keeneland handicapping consultant since 2008 and was lead statistician/researcher for more than 50 Triple Crown telecasts on NBC, ABC and ESPN for 18 years.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, April 19, 2026
What to Watch for Today: Sophomore turf sprinters have the stage in the $300,000 Palisades Stakes as leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is expected back in action after an Oaklawn Handicap sojourn on Saturday (along with brother Jose). No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only a pair of grass races carded.
Note the new minimum wager amounts for the pick 3 ($1) and superfecta ($0.50) as you tackle Keeneland this Spring. Beginning this meet, the day’s final pick 3 will carry a $3 minimum. The higher minimums may decrease the number of combos you play, but absolutely will increase the returns when you win. Get paid when you’re right has long been my gambling motto in racing.
Also note that local workout videos are now available free on the Keeneland website with a searchable database. It’s a great new resource and something I am employing in my work. Keeneland also will begin posting projected final odds during the course of betting as well as a faster cycling in updating odds as horseplayers try to evaluate the impact computer-assisted wagering teams may have on the closing prices each race.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter/X @Keenelandracing and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cooler temps in the upper 50s are forecasted for a mostly sunny day.
Upper-level $50,000 claimers route 1-1/8 miles on dirt to open the early pick 5. We’ve had 11 Spring Meet dirt route claiming races at the $40,000 or higher level. Favorites are 1-11, but the average winner is just 7-2 odds. All 11 winners were 7-1 or less. Fair Grounds preppers have 4 wins, Gulfstream the only other with multiples (2). FG reps here are Tarantino and Goldeneye. Only 1 winner was making a first start of the year like Hurry Hurry attempts, but I like this to potentially buck that trend over a track he likes and a group of rivals with little or no local experience. Turfway preppers have won 4 of the first 8 claiming races at the current meet and Hurry Hurry is the lone TP rep. Never dismiss a Curlin going long, particularly 9F, which is good news for Carolo Rapido and Bestfriend Rocket.
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/8 miles on the dirt as the early pick 4 begins. We’ve had 6 such races at the N2L CLM 9F situation in Spring Meets with winners coming off dirt, turf and synthetic and from 5 different locales (Turfway 2) – no trends to embrace. Bartender will try to keep a massive Week 3 rolling for trainer Brad Cox. Her open maiden special weight win at Horseshoe Indy arguably is the best win on paper in this N2L. Dakota Cam’s MSW at Delaware last summer could be in the discussion and both horses should fit fine here. Turfway preppers have won 4 of the first 8 claiming races at the current meet and are mix of shorter prices and longshots here in Nan O’Hara, Tiz Sally, Country Club and Tutta Bella.
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. It’s a common race type with 47 of them in the Spring Meet database. Favorites slightly underperform at 15-47 with an average winner slightly above average at 5-1. The average winner is just over a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. Experienced runners have a 40-7 edge over first-time starters. Fair Grounds preppers have 13 wins, just ahead of Turway with 11. Trainer Joe Sharp has a pair of entries in Gus’s Gal, by sharp Kee dirt sire Midnight Lute, and Shining Silver, who lures Jose Ortiz off his stablemate to ride for the first time. Class dropper Red Raze was overmatched vs. tougher here last Fall, but the Practical Joke offspring typically give a good effort on this track when paired up properly and she can factor.
The pick 6 begins with this 1-1/16 miles dirt maiden special weight for elders. We’ve had 18 such route races for the class/age in Spring Meets and the public has them dialed in with 10 winning favorites. The average winner was just 3-1 odds. Up Country is 6-5 on the morning line and could continue the short-price express. Gulfstream preppers have owned the scene with 9 victories, good news for Saugeen, the lone GP rep. Horses coming out of a 2-turn prep have a 11-6 edge on those exiting 1-turn races (1 first-timer has won as Commerce bids). The only 2-turn preppers here are Up Country and Money Man.
Maiden special weight 3-year-olds sprint the about 7-furlong distance in the late pick 5 opener. We’ve had 42 of these races at 7F in Spring Meets with favorites right around the national 38% average, but an average winner at a juicy 6-1. The average winner is just under three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 1 winner has closed more than 3 lengths at that point. Experienced horses have a 34-8 edge on first-time starters. It’s been an amazing week for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr and the well-bred Final Story will be a strong favorite and tough to beat. He comes via Gulfstream and GP has produced 12 winners in these spots (no other circuit more than 4). The regally bred Into Mischief-Vexatious colt Cierto debuts and is the first-time of repute.
The late pick 4 offers our first turf race of the day as non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) allowance foes match up over 1-3/16 miles. We have 19 such races at the class and distance in Spring Meets after a similar heat in Saturday’s Race 6, typically 2-3 per meet in recent seasons. Gulfstream preppers have 10 of 19 wins after Kentucky Belle for Brad Cox yesterday. Repos here include Kravitz, Gairlick, Patrol Squad Six and Beautiful War – while Knoty Knicks was Gulfstream all winter before a Tampa stakes outing most recently. 13 of the 19 winners at this trip and class exited preps at 1-1/16 miles or longer, which 7 of 12 here can boast. The strength of schedule for Knoty Knicks puts me in his camp though he’s struggled to seal the deal and the trends don’t scream for him out of a Tampa mile. Bill Mott wheels Noble Dynasty back on 2 week’s rest from a late-running sixth in the Transylvania and adds Lasix.
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters kick off the $3 late pick 3 at the about 7-furlong distance. We’ve had 20 of these N1X 7F races in Spring Meets with just 5 winning favorites and an average winner 6-1 odds. That’s going to be tested by 8-5 ML favorite Elnajd as Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brad Cox can do no wrong this week. Only 4 of 20 winners led after the first half-mile (average winner 1-3/4 lengths back at that point). 6 winners prepped at Gulfstream, 5 at Fair Grounds, and 3 from Turfway. Elnajd is the lone GP rep. Only 5 of 20 winners exited 2-turn preps
Sophomore turf sprinters take center stage in the $300,000 Palisades Stakes, a newer stakes with only 5 Spring editions on record. Favorites have lost the last 4, but no winner has been more than 7-1 (average just under 9-2). Only inaugural winner Bulletin was even within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile, the last 4 winners deep closers. 4 of 5 winners were making their first start of the calendar year like 3-1 morning line favorite Schwarzenegger bids. Other layoff runners here include Sandal’s Song and Azizam – and I like all 3 of those in my top-3. Wesley Ward won this race in 2021 and 2024 and sends out Schwarzenegger, winner of the Indian Summer here during the Fall Meet. If the closers have success that will be to the detriment of the front-running favorite. The George Weaver duo of Sandal’s Song and Azizam wants to be motoring late. Power posts 3-4-5 in full-field turf sprints are always worth an extra look, those being Swung, Schwarzenegger and Archimedes if there are no scratches.
We wrap the Week 3 action with this maiden special weight for 3-year-olds sprinting 7 furlongs (sales price-restricted). We’ve had 42 of MSW at 7F in Spring Meets with favorites right around the national 38% average, but an average winner at a juicy 6-1. The average winner is just under three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 1 winner has closed more than 3 lengths at that point. Experienced horses have a 34-8 edge on first-time starters. It’s been an amazing week for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr and they will try to buck that trend with rookie Asheville. The other firster to consider is Rusty Arnold’s Tilt a Twirl, training well for a barn having a big meet. Nonconforming and also-eligible Cerebus come via Gulfstream and GP has produced 12 winners in these spots (no other circuit more than 4). Quarry adds Lasix after nibbling around several diplomas last year and gets my tepid nod.
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