Ed DeRosa is a Cleveland native who got into racing going to Thistledown with his grandfather. After 9 years as a reporter and editor with Thoroughbred Times and 10 years with Churchill Downs Inc. as a director of marketing, Ed is back to his media roots as vice president of content and product development at Horse Racing Nation. His favorite horses are Real Quiet, Ghostzapper, and Rachel Alexandra. His favorite food at Keeneland is the Keeneland dog. He does not like the bread pudding but understands that others do. Follow him on X @EJXD2. Go Guardians! O-H!
This is my 25th fall meeting at Keeneland, and I've never been more exciting for a month of racing under the Dogwoods--a month that crescendos to the Breeders' Cup on October 30-31.
Before we get there, though, we gotta get through opening FallStars weekend, featuring several Breeders' Cup prep races. Today's opening day card features preps for the Breeders' Cup Sprint in the Phoenix Stakes, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in the Jessamine Stakes, and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in the Alcibiades Stakes. Together they make up an all-graded stakes pick 3 and the meat of a super competitive late pick 5.
Also, don't forget that Horse Racing Nation has partnered with Keeneland to display PROJECTED ODDS for each race. These odds are updated in real time to account for scratches, weather, and live money. It's available every live race day for every race.
1st Race
Speed in the opener is a popular refrain, but there's a lot of speed in this lid lifter, so we'll take a horse from (slightly) off the pace in No. 6 Our Shenanigan. Trainer Sergio Donjuan claimed off Joe Sharp, and Turfway might be the ultimate destination given this one is undefeated in two starts on Tapeta, but getting a starter here while cutting back to seven furlongs with pace to run into.
PICKS: 6-1-7
2nd Race
Jockey Yedsit Hazlewood is a name you're going to watch. As morning line maker (via Horse Racing Nation) for Laurel Park, I became intimately familiar with Hazlewood and how good he is. He is a jockey that I will use automatically on all spread tickets. In this spot, though, I like him on top with No. 4 Mena who takes a big drop in class and can be prominent here early.
PICKS: 4-1-8
3rd Race
This looks like a two-horse race between No. 2 Seaside Startup and No. 7 Virabhadrasana, and in those situations I'm always going to yield to the bigger price between the two obvious horses. That's the deuce in this case, those 7-2 morning line is much more attractive than Virabhadrasana's even money. Seaside Startup pressed a fast pace from the rail on debut and gets a similar inside draw here to beat Virabhadrasana for position.
PICKS: 2-7
P.S. This race is noteworthy for the return of Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who missed a couple months of racing due to a foot injury. Virabhadrasana is the first of seven mounts for him today. Welcome back, Irad!
4th Race
One of my best bets of the day is No. 5 Fast Gun, a six-time loser who might have a strong pace advantage against this maiden group with Jose Ortiz picking up the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen. Brother Irad is on No. 12 Staged, who looks OK on debut but that outside post is gnarly, even with the long run to the far turn in this Beard Course tilt. No. 10 Crawford is an interesting longshot with the aforementioned Hazlewood up cutting back after showing a more forward dimension for trainer Arnaud Delacour.
UPDATE: As you may have surmised from the strikethrough above, Fast Gun scratched. That makes this race pretty wide open now.
PICKS: 12-10-4-7
5th Race
No. 10 Light Won Up drops out of stakes company for this turf sprint that kicks off the $3 all-turf pick 3. Now in its sixth year, this is one of the absolute best bets for the retail player. It's on races 5, 8, and 10 today. Light Won Up has run against some solid turf sprinters while going longer distances than most turf sprints. She was on OK fourth at this course and distance in a stakes earlier this year, and should benefit from both class relief and lasix with trainer Doug O'Neill legging up Jose Ortiz.
PICKS: 10-4-3
6th Race
I'm hesitant to call No. 8 National Forest a best bet because odds on seems likely on this runner-up to Jokester last out from post 11 who gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for his second career start. Trainer Brad Cox is 28% second out with a -2% ROI. Considering Cox's celebrity and the horses he trains in the maiden ranks, that is an incredible ROI, and this one looks the part of a strong single to begin the late pick 5.
Part of that conviction is a lack of a first-time starter who truly inspires. No. 9 Knicks Diamond an intriguing longshot as his trainer Mark Simms has popped with a couple big debut runners from a small sample, and the dam's two foals to race so far are both winners.
PICKS: 8-9-4-5
7th Race
Stakes time, and I'm going to take a big swing with No. 1 Mad House as the speed of the speed from the rail. The break will be everything for this well-traveled Vekoma gelding, but I think the price is right to find out if Sonny Leon can pop the gate on top and not look back. Leon was aboard last time, and while those waters proved too deep that was a Grade 1, and Mad House was able to split the field after breaking on top. Nos. 8 and 10 are the logical off-the-pace picks, but the price seems a little short.
PICKS: 1-8-10
8th Race
Earlier I said a horse was "one of my best bets of the day" well, No. 5 Seneca Park is my best bet of the day. This undefeated Golden Pal filly has a big question to answer here stretching out to 1 1/16 miles after blitzing ten foes in the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs, but everything we've seen from her in two starts tells me she (and Golden Pal) can handle this trip. No. 1 Pros and Cons has had trouble in both two turn starts, but Racing Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse remains loyal to Jose Ortiz who might be able to work some magic from the rail. That said, Seneca Park is a strong single for me in that $3 all-turf pick 3 that starts race 5 and ends race 10.
PICKS: 5-1-7
9th Race
The first of six Grade 1 races during the fall meeting is the Alcibiades Stakes, and it is hard to look past No. 5 Summer Starlet, an off-the-pace winner from the parking lot on debut. That initial win came at 15.88-1 odds, but the secret was out, as she was the 8-5 favorite in the Spinaway next out and much the best in there as well. Don't let the short price deter you from betting this race, though. No. 3 Ever Forward is 20-1 morning line and might go a long way under Brian Hernandez Jr., one of the best at riding these 1 1/16-mile "short stretch" races at Keeneland.
PICKS: 5-3-8
10th Race
Let's go out with a bang in the finale! No. 1 Chillax will be every bit of that 20-1 morning line price considering trainer David Jacobson is 0-for-14 adding blinkers and 1-for-40 going turf to dirt, but the number power is just too good against this group to dismiss him at this kind of price. Plus, we're on an odds on horse in the previous race, so we want some prices to close out the late multi-race wagers.
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