The worst part about traveling with my family for spring break was being unable to post picks for the Sunday, April 12, card after two straight winning day. The best part was everything else.
But we're back at it for day 1 of week 3 hoping that 14-hour drive did not dull our handicapping acumen as we try to fill the hole from the first four days of the meeting.
STATS: 58-12-12-9 (20.7% win, 51.7% ItM, +6.1% HRN Impact, -23.2% ROI
As for those who are cashing more tickets than I am, it has been a lucrative meeting with generous payouts in most wagers--even that $4.30 average show payout sticks out as decent.
One fun thing about this Wednesday card in particular is it includes a trio of turf races, which means the $3 all-turf pick 3 is in play! More on that under race 4 (which also begins the 50-cent late pick 5).
1st Race
First three races are dirt sprints, which have definitely played toward speed so far this meeting.
That makes me want to take a shot with No. 6 In for a Spin at a huge number here, but she has done well attending the pace against some decent competition. This is the only horse jockey Luan Machado has ridden for trainer Caio Caramori the past two months, so I see it as a positive that he stays aboard for the return to dirt.
PICKS: 6-1-2-4
2nd Race
Need my employer to allow the graphic below to include more than six horses, so will mention that No. 9 Pot's Right has four stars.
Obviously we're looking inside here, though, not outside, as both No. 1 Autism Honor G and No. 3 Lack of Risling sport five-star Power Ratings, and the inside draws add to the confidence factor. Of course the Wesley Ward-trained Joker's Chic looks to go favored, but given the four-star rating we'll take our shot against. Some personal trivia on the top pick uno: his sire Highly Motivated was my pick to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby that Medina Spirit Mandaloun actually won.
PICKS: 1-3-9-6-5
3rd Race
Going to try to buck the front-runner trend in this race, as No. 4 Tuskegee Airmen has come from off the pace in New York but ships West for trainer Chad Summers, who legs up Tyler Gaffalione here. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one be a bit more assertive against this group. No. 7 Scat Free is a lone speed threat, though, especially Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons.
PICKS: 4-2-7-5
4th Race
Turf sprint kicks off the $3 all-turf pick 3, and through five of these types of races at the current spring meeting, closers are winless, and I expect that to continue here as No. 7 Rose Ruler has a considerable page edge post scratches, which also improves his post position.
PICKS: 7-5-4-8-9
5th Race
Opportunity awaits here, as No. 4 Couldyoubeloved fits with these based on Turfway form. Dirt a small question mark, of course, but 6-to-1 morning line price has me thinking we'll get compensated to answer that question on a filly who sports strong Ragozin figures and the top Prime Power ranking via Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances.
PICKS: 4-1-7-5-8
6th Race
Interesting race here with No. 5 Gypsy Art a worthy favorite as most likely winner, but 2-to-1 morning line hints at underlayy territory for this Wesley Ward trainee. Going to take a shot with No. 6 Inordinary on top, as this one adds Lasix for three-year-old debut with expectations of precocity as a two-year-old when 3-to-2 in second career start. Miguel Vasquez was aboard that day and is again today. Positive signals at a nice price.
PICKS: 6-4-5-2-7
7th Race
The top two are obvious here, so this feels like a spot where you have to just have to have your opinion and go with God. The one counterpoint to that is if I really get through races 6-7 with the prices I like then there's a world where using the obvious two here makes sense. But if you're on short prices around this race then take your stand.
And I stand with No. 7 Fact to defeated No. 2 Rothko. They're 9- and 7-to-5, respectively, on Nick Tammaro's morning line, and I agree that the latter will go favored given the Irad Ortiz Jr. up for Brad Cox dynamic. But Fact get John Velazquez and the opportunity to maybe get the jump on his primary rival here.
PICK: 5
8th Race
Trainer Brendan Walsh got off the schneid last week, and going to ride that momentum a bit here with No. 6 Austere at a more generous price than favored No. 3 Child of the Moon--especially with the expectation that Austere will be more forwardly placed.
PICLS: 6-12-8-1-3
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