Expert Picks | Keeneland

Ellis Starr

Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, publishing analysis and selections for races at Keeneland on a daily basis, major races weekly, and other websites, including Keeneland Select. Ellis also participates in handicapping contests and is among a small group to qualify in the Keeneland Tournament of Champions Handicapping Contest annually. In 2025, Ellis finished in the top five percent among 800 entries in the National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

You can follow Ellis’ insights on X (formerly Twitter) and on Bluesky @ubercapper.com

Race 7 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:12 p.m.

Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#1 Lucky Mischief – at odds of 3 to 1 or higher

Exacta: 1 over 2, 4, 5 (Winter Holiday, Shure, Spun Legacy)

Lucky Mischief just won her last race on September 18 at this distance on turf. Her last three races were allowance races, but her most recent was a claiming race, and she was bought for $50,000 by trainer Mike Maker. Maker has an excellent success rate when his horses win back-to-back – 28 for 139 (20%) - in the past five years. Jockey John Velazquez. Lucky Mischief is back in an allowance race, so she can’t be claimed and should earn her new connections more than her purchase price, as this race has $72,000 to the winner.

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‘Pick of the day’ every weekend – https://www.keeneland.com/legacy-news-category/keeneland-select
Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast https://www.amwager.com/category/ellis-starr-blog/

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