1st Race
The distance is the key element here. 6-Goldeneye has spent most of his career going longer than this and he ought to move forward in his second start off a lengthy break for the McPeek barn and Prat. And I like that he has more wins that second and third-place finishes. The 7-5 morning line favorite is winless at nine furlongs and has 16 finishes in the second or third slot versus only four wins--that's why I'm trying to beat 3-Tarantino at a short price. 7-Carolo Rapido makes his third start off a layoff and he's coming off a 2025 season in which he scored three of his five career wins.
2nd Race
1-Bartender threw in a clunker last time on an off track but he was very good in his previous three and his speed from the rail, along with a class drop for Cox, makes this one hard to beat at short odds. 9-Don't Be Salty has been in good form in all three starts this year at the Fairgrounds and this one has a pedigree to relish getting to run nine furlongs for the first time for a barn that often does well in the last week or two of the spring meets here. 8-American Select finished right with the 9-horse last time out and this one's early speed gives him a chance to get a good early position.
3rd Race
3-Solaia was singled out in the Keeneland clocker report for today's card for the speed she showed in a recent work here from the gate. This barn has good numbers with debut runners and none of the ones that have run have been overly impressive. 6-Shining Silver drops in class in the first start since being claimed by the Joe Sharp barn but the purse might be more of a horizontal move from the last outing rather than a drop. I like seeing Jose Ortiz on this one eventhough he's ridden the stablemate in recent starts. 5-Gus's Gal has a tendency to drop pretty far out of of it and that could compromise his win chance in this spot at six furlongs. 7-Red Raze showed some positional speed in his debut race here at Keeneland last fall and the drop from straight maiden company to the claiming ranks could be her ticket to the winner's circle.
4th Race
2-Saugeen broke slowly in his debut but finished up with a decent run against a solid maiden group at Gulfstream. I think this spot might be lighter for him and the barn has strong numbers with second-out runners. 1-Noble Anthem debut going six furlongs and showed some speed so the rail draw with this two-turn, short-stretch race could very much play to this colt's benefit and Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the mount is noteworthy. 9-Up Country has been pretty consistent but he's winless in six starts and breaking from a bad post for the trip he gets here. I'm betting it'll be tough for this one to avoid getting caught wide with his running style and that could be enough to get him beat at short odds.
5th Race
7-Final Story comes out of an excellent debut effort at seven furlongs for the Cox barn and this one should win unless one of the first-time starters is special. 2-Cierto is a firster for the Walsh barn by Into Mischief and it would not be a surprise if this one has some ability. 10-Radar Lock showed a little early speed in his initial outing and that was after a slow start so improvement would not be a surprise.
6th Race
10-Noble Dynasty beat almost half the field in the grade 3 Transylvania on the opening day card here and shows a sharp work out of that first start off the layoff. 7-Patrol Squad Six looked good winning here last year and it's interesting to see Alvarado sticking with this one versus going with the Mott runner. 6-Gairloch won his debut and then was fifth while facing some of these in the first out against winners. 12-Beautiful War has a similar pattern to the previous runner but has a worse post position.
7th Race
6-Elnajd ran well the first time against winners and finished almost seven lengths ahead of third for Cox. 11-Big Gain has hooked Published and Nu What's New in the last two starts and this one is three-time winner in a race where most have just the one victory. 1-Dr Park looked good winner here last spring and then showed speed before fading las month in the first off a long layoff. 4-Tre Italiani comes out of a race where the top three finishers came back to win.
8th Race
3-Schwarzenegger is the pick in the Palisades Stakes for the Ward barn. He was fifth by just three lengths in the BC Juvnile Turf Sprint last fall at Del Mar. 6-Sandal's Song ran third in a group two at the Royal Ascot meet last summer. 12-Shipmate has a horrible post but he's in top form and the trainer believes the extra sixteenth of the mile will be a big help in this spot. 5-Archimedes is in good form for the Maker barn. 7-Monster is a super speedy runner and makes the second start off a layoff.
9th Race
A restricted maiden race closes out the card and the red-hot Cox barn figures to get the win in this spot with 11-Asheville, who shows a long, steady pattern of works to prep for this debut. 8-Bod Beach is 0-for-9 but has six runnerup finishes and Alvarado sticks with this one. 3-Quarry was third to a next-out winner last time. 6-Tom's Cruising is a first-timer from the Arnold barn, which has had a very good meet this spring here at Keeneland.
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