Expert Picks

Day 1 Thoughts and Wagering Strategies

In this space I'll highlight some handicapping ideas and some of the better wagering opportunities of the day. In addition to those thoughts, if you click the link below, you can read my daily full card analysis of every race during this meet along with different content from some of the sharpest minds in the game.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/category/blog/keeneland/

Starting Off With a Bang

There are several great betting races on this card so I want to get out of the gate strong. I have a few strong opinions in the first two races and I’m hoping to capitalize on them to start building a strong bankroll for this meet.

1st Race

There are two horses that I like in this starter allowance race. Queen of Queens (#8) is the well-spotted favorite in this race, but there’s a longshot that I want to use as well. Mom’s Cheesecake (#10) feels like a strong value play at 20-1 on the morning line. She’s coming off a 6th place finish at this level in a six furlong sprint at Churchill. However, she was making her first start since May and she’s traveling back to Keeneland where she’s had more success in the past. She’s a consistent filly that might not have the highest ceiling in this race, but I do think her floor is higher than most in here. Queen of Queens gets Jose Ortiz in the saddle, and he’s been on an absolute tear this summer. This filly came to life in New Orleans this winter before going to the sidelines. She came back after nine months away and ran a solid race in her turf debut at Kentucky Downs. She’s better on the dirt though and I think this is a good spot for her second start off the layoff. The price will not be as appealing though, as she’s starting off at 3-1 on the morning line. My thinking is that I’ll be zeroing in on this duo in both the vertical and horizontal exotics. I’ll play a weighted double and weighted exacta box, with more money on the shorter price runner, along with an across the board wager on my longshot of the day.

The Plays:

Race 1: $5 WPS 10

Race 1: $5 DBL 10 / 1

Race 1: $10 DBL 8 / 1

Race 1: $5 Exacta 10 / 8

Race 1: $15 Exacta 8 / 10

2nd Race

I love the rolling doubles at Keeneland as they all are offered with a lower 15% takeout. I’ll be relying on National Eclipse (#1) in this $16K claimer. I love that Eddie Kenneally had success with this gelding in the past and then re-claimed him after losing him two starts back. He missed a little time and looked like he needed his last race where he ran well to be 4th, despite having to go very wide. He has good tactical speed so the rail draw should be favorable for him in this race.

7th Race

The first stakes race of the meet is the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes, which is a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint here at Keeneland at the end of the month. While I think both Verifire (#4) and Nakatomi (#10) will take more of the public money in this race, I think this is a great spot for Hymn (#8) for Ron Moquett. He campaigned Whitmore, who won this race in 2017 and would later win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint on this course in 2020. This gelding is giving off similar vibes. They tried him in two turn stakes races at a three year old, but it’s been in sprint races this year where he’s been able to carve out his niche. He started to shine toward the back half of the Oaklawn meet and now he comes into this race winning four of his last five starts, including a win in the DeFrancis Dash at Laurel and the Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga in his latest try. While that race was affected by scratches, it was still a strong performance from this four year gelded son of McKinzie. He is progressing forward and I think he’s worth playing in this race today.

The Play:

$25 Win #8

Total Invested Today: $75.00

Eric Solomon