#2 Saugeen (6-1 ML)

While Up Country (#9) is going to take most of the public money in this race, he’s going to have to overcome a wide draw. The fact that he’s 0-6 doesn’t really inspire a lot of confidence in terms of his resilience. Instead, I’ll try this second time starter from Josie Carroll’s barn. She already sent out a well-meant winner at this meet and I think this son of Mendelssohn should improve in this maiden special weight contest. He debuted against a tough field, going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. He was a little slow from the gate and had to go wide on the turn. He was flat late, which could be expected from a firster at that distance who had a less than ideal trip. He drilled a sharp workout over this course last week for a barn that excels with second time starters and getting horses to stretch out in distance. 

The Plays:

Race 4: $10 Win # 2

Race 4: $5 DBL 2 / 7

#10 Noble Dynasty (6-1 ML):

I thought this horse had a chance in the Grade 3 Transylvania on Opening Day. However, he was shuffled to the back of the pack after breaking a beat slow. You could see the horse wanted to be a little closer, but Junior Alvarado would have had to concede a lot of ground going into the first turn to try to find a more comfortable spot for him. He was stacked up behind a wall of horses, so he was forced to tip out wide. He had to alter course at the top of the lane and had to deal with the race winner drifting into his path (while still clear) in midstretch. That was his first start of the year and I think he has a lot more ability than he showed that day. He was really good in the Central Park Stakes two starts ago in New York and I think that ungraded race was one of the better two year old turf races in the country last fall. I like the outside draw for him in this spot and the longer run into the first turn and the longer distance of this race in general should suit him well. 

Brad Cox and Irad have been dominating both the trainer and jockey standings at this meet. They are teaming up with two short priced and very logical favorites in the 5th and 7th races. With the lowered 15% takeout rates at Keeneland for the doubles, I’ll plan to use this colt in both the doubles starting in the 5th and 6th races. 

The Play:

Race 5: $5 DBL 7 / 10

Race 6: $10 DBL 10 / 6

Race 6: $20 Win #10

Total Invested Today: $50