Jeremy Plonk is the owner of Horse Player NOW, the racing industry's leading fan education and player development website and creator of the Night School program. He has been a Keeneland handicapping consultant since 2008 and was lead statistician/researcher for more than 50 Triple Crown telecasts on NBC, ABC and ESPN for 18 years.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, October 2. 2026
What to Watch for Today: Welcome back to Keeneland as my 37th consecutive race meet to provide race-by-race stats, trends and analysis is loaded into the gate. That’s nearly 5,500 races of experience in trying to discover what works, and doesn’t work, during this prestigious stand.
The opening day features on Fall Stars Weekend include the Grade 2 Phoenix, Grade 2 Jessamine and Grade 1 Alcibiades in succession during Races 7-9. With the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland at the end of the month, these stakes take on even more importance. Friday’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 goes as Races 5, 8 and 10 and includes the Jessamine. It's great to see past Keeneland champion jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. back from an ankle injury on his first day riding.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing and @Horseplayernow. Catch the archives at your leisure if you can’t make it live, Please subscribe to both channels if you get the chance.
Weather: A warm week in the 80s continues Friday with a chance of rain coming at the tail end of the card, according to forecasts. Expect fast and firm conditions to open.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
Morning Movers: Utilize Keeneland’s free video workout database, courtesy of the KTDF, here: https://www.keeneland.com/racing/workout-videos. It’s another great, free handicapping tool for betting Keeneland.
Starter allowance sprinters go 7 furlongs on dirt in the early pick 5 kickoff. Favorites have scored just under 33% in such Fall starter allowance sprints on dirt while horses prepped at Churchill Downs account for a whopping 25 of 53 contests (no other circuit more than 5). Early speed has been effective at this class and distance with the average of the 16 such winners just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the first half-mile and only 3 winners rallying from more than 1-1/2 lengths back at that point. Pace here could come from Heartbeat on the rail via Churchill while adding some distance. Note that 10 of the 16 such winners of these past Fall races were adding distance from their most recent prep. Noroomformischief and Hollybygolly would also fit the profile for this race, as do Modern Sound and Mom’s Cheesecake. Of all those, the back form of Heartbeat intrigues slightly most if she can get back to her summer form before being claimed.
This $16,000-level claiming route goes at 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. We’ve had 38 Fall Meet claiming routes for $20K or less levels on dirt and favorites have won a strong 16 of them. Only 2 have been won by horses in double-digit odds. Four of these runners exit the same September 10 race at Churchill, of which National Eclipse arguably had the toughest trip and could benefit saving ground from the rail. His trainer Eddie Kenneally is 16-37 in the exacta in Kee dirt claimers over the years and National Eclipse did break his maiden here in the 2024 Fall Meet at this same distance. Churchill prepped runners have won 12 of these 38 races, easily most but Belterra has popped with a surprising 5 winners for that circuit, which is represented here by Jus Too Fly and not without a chance. I’ll try to knock off Manfredi who has been away since February but should get bet off a fast speed figure.
Juvenile non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) allowance foes match up over 6 furlongs on dirt. Half of the 26 such Fall Meet races have been won by horses making a surface switch from turf or synthetic so don’t be afraid of that. Favorites are a solid 10-26. Winners are evenly distributed among Saraoga-Churchill-Kentucky Downs with no real edges. At this 6 furlong trip, the 11 races have seen the winner a scant 5-2 average price and have been quite formful. Virabhadrasana could get a dynamite trip outside under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a champion Keeneland rider returning today from a summer ankle injury at Saratoga. Note that this last-out winner’s third-place pursuer, Foxiest, returned to Churchill to win easily and is a very talented Gun Runner-Covfefe blueblood; so she exits a very strong race. Sharpie Girl was third at Churchill behind Alcibiades entrant Elewena and could give us a better measure on that one toward the feature race today.
Elder maiden special weight sprinters compete over the about seven-furlong trip on dirt in this one. Of 16 such races for the age/class/distance, 11 winners cut back some in distance. While its generally a bad statistical cliché thrown around that cutback horses excel at 7F at Keeneland, this is actually one such case that it’s true. That’s good news here for Cartier Gold, Fast Gun, Parisinthemorning and Crawford. I’ll focus my attention there and prefer Parisinthemorning as she’s by Kee dirt super-sire City of Light (32% wins, $1.51 ROI for every $1 bet over the past 3 local meets). Luis Saez’s elite 7F riding record here 21% wins from 200+ mounts and a $1.31 ROI for every $1 bet puts Cartier Gold in the right hands off a long layoff. Fast Gun was second here in the Spring Meet in a similar spot and obviously fits.
The pick 6 gets underway and does the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 wager with our first grass race of the season, a stakes-caliber allowance sprint at 5-1/2 furlongs. A full field of 12 has entered and longtime readers here know about the 3-4-5 power posts and their statistical success at Keeneland in full fields. Well, in Fall Meet allowance races like this, they account for 10 of 19 winners at average odds of 9-1. Give extra credence to Gerrards Cross, Should’ve and Alpenglow barring any scratches. Should’ve is about as trendy a pick as you can get in my space, not only from a power post but by local super turf sire Not This Time (22% winners, $1.23 ROI for every $1 bet locally on grass the past 3 meets), and trained by Wesley Ward, whose won more turf sprints than anyone here by a mile and has 11 such Fall allowance turf dashes to his credit (no other trainer more than 5). The caveat is there’s a ton of pace in here and could set up for a late runner. Pillar of Beauty and Cadenza interest most of the late runners, and note the latter’s trainer Brad Cox won 28% here last Fall. He and trainer Ward are 1-2 for the most Fall Stars Weekend wins the past 5 years with 14 and 11, respectively.
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters clash at 6 furlongs on dirt as the late pick 5 takes flight. We get 15 or so of these 2YO MSW dirt sprints each Fall, totaling 152 since the 2014 return to dirt. First-time starters (63 wins) and Churchill preppers (50 wins) account for 113 of those 152, so that’s the starting point. At this 6F specific trip, 31 of 64 winners were rookies (17 of those 31 winners bet to favoritism). Steve Asmussen (TV Time Out) and Brad Cox (National Forest) each have a Kee-best 7 wins in these particular spots. Both come out of Churchill runner-up efforts though National Forest looks to have landed in the stronger one in Louisville. As for the rookies, #3 Kingside intrigues most with a strong workout tab. Trainer Brendan Walsh won a similar race here last year via CD works with Bella Ballerina, who went on to become a graded stakes winner. Tyler Gaffalione, a past Kee champion jockey, was on fire to end the Churchill meet last week.
The first of 3 stakes will be the Grade 2 $400,000 Phoenix at 6 furlongs on dirt, a potential springboard to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and launching pad to today’s late pick 4. We’ve run the Phoenix 12 times since returning to dirt and favorites are 7-12. Horses prepped at Saratoga own 6 wins (no other circuit more than 2). Only 2 of 12 winners closed more than 3 lengths to win, but one of those, is defending champion Nakatomi who gets another extremely fast pace set-up potential in front of him. Nakatomi (7: 4-2-0 at Keeneland on dirt) exits the Saratoga summer scene, as does Hymn, the likelyh favorite off his win in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Forego. Trainer Ron Moquett won this race in 2017 with his Breeders’ Cup Sprint champ Whitmore. In a stakes that’s been very formful, I’ll be surprised if this one gets beyond that pair. Verifire for Brad Cox goes for a barn that is hot now and fires here opening weekends of the Fall. Longshot look to Viking on a cutback in distance for a share as a son of super local sire City of Light (32% wins, $1.51 ROI for every $1 bet over the past 3 local meets).
The Grade 2 $400,000 Jessamine Stakes is middle leg of today’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 and could have Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf implications. We have 19 editions of this race in our database with 7 winning favorites. But chalk is just 1 of the last 4 and overall the average winner is a juicy 7-1 with 6 times the winner being 10-1 or more. You can fish a bit here. Of the 19 winners, 14 prepped last at a mile or longer with 9 coming via New York preps (3 Churchill, 3 Ky Downs). Expect Monique En Vol to be strongly bet for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. She’s a debut winner at KD by the great Flightline from his first crop and all those babies are being bet. Cox also has KD maiden winner Lucky Bernardine with Flavien Prat up, a dynamic duo of big stakes riders for the barn. Glycogen exits a win n Saratoga’s PG Johnson Stakes and should outrun those return rivals again. But I’m on price patrol with Mightily, a son of Kee G1-winning turf miler & Preakness champ War of Will. He was very strong late last out at Colonial when taking on the boys and running second in stakes company behind a well-meant 4-5 shot winner. Colonial runners have provided excellent value here last Fall Meet, securing a $1.14 ROI for every $1 bet and being the only profitable circuit of Kee invaders among those with 5 or more winners.
Friday’s main event is the Grade 1 $650,000 Alcibiades for 2-year-old fillies on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies path. Favorites have won this race 4 of the last 5 years and fillies who prepped at Saratoga have run out 7 wins in the last 8 years. That’s good news for likely favorite and the Spa’s Spinaway winner Summer Scarlet, a daughter of local super sire City of Light (32% wins, $1.51 ROI for every $1 bet over the past 3 local meets). Her chief rival could be fellow Saratoga winner Forever Carina, a debut winner and full-sister to this year’s Kentucky Oaks heroine Always a Runner. Don’t fear the stretchout in distance for the favored pair; 8 of the last 9 winners of this race prepped at 7 furlongs or less. Also in the 8-filly lineup is Emphatic, winner of Monmouth’s Sorority from 2 starts and a daughter of strong Kee dirt influence Nyquist, who sired Immersive to win this race 2 years ago and was a BC Juvenile winner over this track at age 2.
The card closes daily with the Toyota Super Hi 5 wager and this one is a 1-3/16 miles entry level (N1X) turf allowance. The nightcap also will conclude today’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 bet. We have been getting 2 per meet when it comes to 1-3/16 miles turf allowances and have had 15 over the years. Prices have ruled with favorites 2-15 and an average winner nearly 9-1 odds. Among the last 10 offered, 7 winners prepped at Kentucky Downs and 3 from Churchill. The 15 winners saw 11 exit preps at 1-1/8 miles or longer. I’ll put my stock in KD horses with long races last out, which includes Highly Connected, Lahainaluna, My Boy Tony, Lazlo, Doctrine and The Brigade. Lahainaluna trainer Joe Sharp won similar races to this during the 2018 and 2023 Fall Meets and I like that this colt ran well when third here in the Spring Meet over the course. Lazlo is a battle-tested, 4-time winner against lesser still eligible for this first-level allowance and Mike Maker.
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