The rarest of allowance conditions, a third-level (N3X) appears here over 6-1/2 furlongs. At this cross-roads sprint distance, only 2 of 41 Fall Meet allowance winners closed more than 3 lengths after the first half-mile to win (average winner 1-1/4 lengths off the pace at that point). That fact and a small field size of 6 will point an emphasis on early speed. Morning line favorites Floodlites and C K Wonder make strong cases on paper and with past winning races over the track and being by top Kee dirt sires City of Light and Vekoma, respectively. Add these factors: Floodlites jockey John Velazquez is an unbelievable 19-38 (50%) on the Kee dirt in sprint races with fields of 6 or fewer like this, riding the sprint cat-and-mouse at a Hall of Fame level. As for C K Wonder, no trainer has been more reliable when expected to be during Keeneland Fall Meets than Dale Romans. His 52% win rate when favored during Kee Fall Meets (12-23) is best of any barn since 2014 with 10 or more favorites.

The Grade 2 $400,000 Woodford Stakes for turf sprinters begins today’s All-Stakes Pick 5 and the $3 Turf Pick 3. We have 20 editions of this race in our database and favorites have hit 40% and note 7 of the last 8 winners were single-digit odds. It hasn’t been a good fishing expedition for prices, but I can’t fully embrace the shorter-price runners here. Saratoga preppers have 6 wins (next-best is 2), including 3 in the last 4 years. Note 17 of the 20 winners last raced at 6 furlongs or less and closers have had success – the average winner is 2-3/4 lengths back after the first half-mile and twice as many horses closed from 4 lengths or more back at that point to win (8) as the race leaders at that stage (4). The Saratoga alumni here exiting sprints include Nobals and Doncho, the former a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner trying to regain his mojo at age 7 and the latter last year’s pacemaker looking to find some patience. Stylistically the edge might go to my upset top pick Nobals from off the pace as I expect morning line favorite Joe Shiesty to fly early along with wide-drawn Doncho as well as Mondogetsbuckets having to hustle from an inner post. Joe Sheisty is the only runner here coming off a win and only half the field exit a top-3 prep finish (note 6 of the last 7 Woodford winners ran top-3 in their most-recent tuneup). Wesley Ward won this race 3 times, twice with Golden Pal and once with No Nay Never, the latter sire of Ward’s chance here, No Nay Hudson. He’s a surprising 1-for-7 on the Kee turf for a Ward grass dasher. Nobody comes close to Ward’s production in local turf sprints over the years. No Nay Hudson’s second in Del Mar’s Green Flash looked better when winner Sorrento Sky came right back to win Santa Anita’s Eddie D Stakes impressively last Saturday. Motorious, beaten favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, comes off a fourth in that same Green Flash as he looks to make the BC Turf Sprint for the fourth straight year.

The Grade 1 $800,000 First Lady Stakes begins today’s Late Pick 4 and is middle leg in the $3 Turf Pick 3. Chad Brown won this race 7 years in a row before Segesta came up a neck short last year. They’re back looking to reclaim the First Lady title as the 3-1 morning line favorite. It’s been struggle-city for favorites in this race, who’ve lost 10 straight and 14 of the last 15 – incredible to think when Brown ran off such a long winning streak. Closers have had a strong run in this race with only 4 of 20 winners in our database having led after the first half-mile (the average winner more than 3-3/4 lengths back at that point). Saratoga preppers have 12 of the 20 wins (no other circuit more than 2), including 6 of the last 8. That’s good news for And One More Time, Deep Satin and Segesta. But Ellis prepper Lush Lips is no stranger to Keeneland success, winning last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup as a 3-year-old. While she failed to finish late last time, her prior finishing kicks were among the very best in the field in terms of BRIS late pace figures. Anywhere near 8-1 morning line odds makes her playable. Deep Satin is another 8-1 ML shot to watch. She should be finishing well and was fourth by a half-length in this race last year when stuck with a terrible post that day and makes a rider improvement to Jose Ortiz. Her Sept. 21 workout was sharper than usual and indicates Cherie DeVaux has her on tilt. Give me Deep Satin and Lush Lips in a minor upset that’s been this race’s MO for more than a decade.

Saturday’s $1.25 million main event is the Grade 1 Turf Mile and it is final leg in today’s $3 Turf Pick 3 wager. Don’t be afraid to shop in this race. Of the last 11 years, favorites have won just once and the average winner during that span has been 9-1. In a race once dominated by favorites like repeat winners Gio Ponti and Wise Dan, it’s been anyone’s game the past decade. We have 19 editions of the race in our database with 13 winners trimming some distance off their most recent, longer prep (6 came back at the same distance, meaning none were adding distance like morning line favorite Lake Forest via England). The cutbacks here belong to Title Role, Mercante, Pass the Hat and Kupuna. NY preppers (Sar/Bel/Aqu) preppers have won this race the last 4 years and 8 times in our database (Ky Downs next with 3). That’s further good news to Title Role, Pass the Hat and my upset pick Kapuna who are also the cut-backs. In a race that’s produced upsets, these should be solid prices to chase. Plenty of respect for Lake Forest, who bids to become the second international runner to win this race in the last 20 years (most recently Suedois in 2017). Zulu Kingdom won the Maker’s Mark Mile in the Spring Meet and would be no surprise to fire a big shot in this spot.