1st Race
8-Queen of Queens got a turf start at Kentucky Downs but now returns to her preferred surface for a barn that has good numbers going turf-to-dirt. 4-Hollybygolly makes her second start in the Riley Mott barn and should improve in the second start off a layoff. 3-Noroomformischief has improved in her two most recent starts and she ran well here last fall for the Ennis barn.
2nd Race
7-Manfredi ran his best race in the second start off the Norm Casse claim but then went to the sidelines. He shows a steady pattern of works over the past couple of months so I'll bet that he comes back ready to run. 5-Vino Couragio was in top form in the summer but went to the sidelines. I like that he came back at a higher level and now moves up again for a barn that has had some success here. At 20-1, he's worth a flyer. 1-National Eclipse makes his first start off the Kenneally claim and the barn hits at 27 percent on that angle.
3rd Race
7-Virabhadrasana showed improvement in the second start and now faces winners for the first time while getting Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. 6-Washton won her debut in May and has been hooking stakes foes in her two most recent starts. 5-Chickies Perch romped against lesser but the Beyer figure stacks up pretty well here.
4th Race
1-Pretty in a Dress beat six of her 11 rivals in the comeback off a long layoff and she encountered a bit of a troubled trip. She should move forward off that effort. 5-Fast Gun ran pretty well against recent grade 1 stake winner Bodacious Bay back in late June and she always seems to give a solid effort. 7-Rules and Regs ran well at Kentucky Downs off a long layoff and Mark Casse does well on the turf-to-dirt move that is in play here. 11-Cognition makes her first start off a long layoff. This is only her second lifetime start but the strength of the connections makes her one to consider.
5th Race
The all-Turf Pick 3 starts here and I like the chances of 11-Cadenza. Some horses just don't care for Kentucky Downs so I'll forgive her mediocre showing there and focus instead of her big effort in the previous outing in a stake at Saratoga. 10-Light Won Up ran okay against a strong field back in the spring and getting Jose Ortiz in the saddle today is a big plus. 4-Should've ran her best race in the first start off a layoff. That was against first-level allowance foes so this is a big step up but she held her own against stakes competition in the past.
6th Race
8-National Forest just missed in his debut at Ellis and he should be super tough to beat in this spot. 5-Overtime Bonus ran okay in the debut for Mark Casse and his barn often plots paths for horses to improve in the second start. There was some improvement in the second out for that was on the turf and I think he could be much better in his second start on dirt. 3-Kingside is a first-timer for the Walsh barn and the colt shows fast works and gets the stable's go-to jock. 4-Saltwater Soul was sold earlier this year for six times the stud fee and the Riley Mott barn can get one ready to win in the debut.
7th Race
2-Booth gets my nod to capture the grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes. On his best day, he'd be good enough to win this and I'm betting the Asmussen barn will have him ready to fire his best shot ahead of the BC Sprint. He's well-drawn to take advantage of his early speed, too. 8-Hymn is in career-best form but he's accomplished enough already to not have to worry about firing his best shot today and I'm thinking his late run will come up just a little short. 4-Verifire's last two races have been his best two but I think the rivals he faces here will demand even more improvement. 10-Nakatomi is a old, class horse who loves Keeneland. I don't think he wins today but I think he could be very dangerous on BC day.
8th Race
No standouts here in the grade 2 Jessamine presented by Keeneland Sales so I'm looking for a price. I landed on 6-Glycogen who has improved with added distance and I'm betting the PG Johnson Stakes will be superior form here versus the ones coming off races at Kentucky Downs. 1-Pros and Cons was the beaten favorite in the PG Johnson at Saratoga but he had trouble at the start. 7-Golden Maiden was impressive in a maiden-breaking win at Saratoga going this mile-and-a-sixteenth distance. The Brad Cox-trained duo of 8-Lucky Bernadine and 3-Monique En Vol were both good-looking winners in maiden company at Kentucky Downs. And I'll use 5-Seneca Park in my late pick 4 off a 2-for-2 start for trainer Dallas Stewart.
9th Race
The grade 1 Darley Alcibiades has a good chance of producing a winner for Breeders' Cup day with the two-year old filly 5-Summer Starlet. She's been dazzling in two starts and the pedigree is there to relish the added distance she gets in this spot, to set up her as the one to beat in the BC Juvenile Fillies race on Halloween. This one is a "single" for me today in multi-race bets. 6-Forever Carina was an impressive maiden winner at Saratoga for trainer Chad Brown and 1-Emphatic has one noteworthy edge over those two in that she's already proven around two turns.
10th Race
8-Kravitz ran pretty well here in the spring and the fact that Graham Motion sends this one back down to Kentucky tells me this horse is ready for a winning effort today. 11-Doctrine makes the second start off the layoff for the Cox barn, which usually has most of its runners ready to fire their best shots at Keeneland. 12-The Brigade showed big improvement last time out when finishing second to a next-out winner. 9-Lazlo is a Mike Maker-trained runner in a turf marathon--enough said.
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