1st Race
7-Mayfield was well-bet in his debut at Ellis and had some trouble at the start. The Walsh barn has good numbers with second-time starters. 2-Commentate didn't do much running at a big price in his debut last fall but the connections are strong and the horse shows some quick workouts over the Keeneland circuit. Worth a look unless the price gets too low. 4-Dream Machine showed big improvement in the start off a long layoff for Chad Brown and was finishing strong at the end.
2nd Race
4-Never Sleep ran his best race in his only start on a fast main track and the Rivelli barn runners usually come to Keeneland ready to run. 3-Never a Doubt was a good-looking debut winner and has caught some good fields in two subsequent stars. This should be a softer group. 1-Chancery was an impressive maiden winner but at a short price, I'll lean to the horses with a little more racing experience.
3rd Race
9-Charm of Venice makes her second start for Walsh and he's had some good success with European-based runners moving to this country. And this one has the pedigree to handle this marathon distance. 10-Siouxse comes off her best race and that was against some graded stakes-caliber foes for Motion. 11-Tulip ran big at Saratoga last time out with a career-best Beyer figure and it was at this distance.
4th Race
3-CK Wonder comes off a sharp score at Ellis Park and she's a neck away from having three wins this season. Jose Ortiz taking the mount is a big plus, too. 2-Floodlites is 2-for-2 at Keeneland for Ward and he has strong numbers off this kind of layoff. 6-Lips Say Bliss finished well in his late-August race at Kentucky Downs and that was the first start off a lengthy break. Anything close to those efforts last fall would give this one a big chance.
5th Race
10-Who Dey comes off one of his best races and he's run well on the Keeneland main track. The work pattern in the past month looks good and the barn has good numbers with horses running off less than a two-month break. 9-Bullard threw in a clunker on a quirky track last time but that effort two back would make him hard to beat in this spot. 2-Render Judgement has found consistent form over the past three starts and he's run well here at Keeneland. It's also positive to see Jose Ortiz sticking with the mount.
6th Race
8-My Boy Prince is just a half-length from three wins in four starts at today's five-and-a-half furlong distance. He's won on this turf course and I'll forgive the subpar effort at Kentucky Downs since some horses just don't care for the conditions there. He's my pick to take the grade 2 Woodford Stakes presented by FanDuel. 10-Doncho is in career-best form over his past three starts and he ran pretty well in this spot a year ago--and I like the fact that he's been a bit more tactical in his running style lately. 7-Motorious might relish the extra sixteenth of a mile that he gets here versus the five-furlong sprints he's run so often in California.
7th Race
In the grade 2 TCA Stakes, 7-Echo Sound gets the call. She ran big in her only start here and the third start off a long layoff could produce her best effort of the year. 6-Eclatant wins with anything close to that performance we saw here in the spring but she's been trending down of late and that makes me leery. 4-Evanescence is 2-for-2 on this track and she's held her own against the caliber of competition she faces here.
8th Race
Give 2-Lush Lips an extra look in the grade 1 First Lady. We talked with trainer Brendan Walsh for a Keeneland social media interview and he said his filly was not fully cranked up for her best effort in that start off the layoff last time out. If she can get back to the level at which she ran here last fall, she's a major factor. 3-Mandanaba was against the bias in her narrow miss in a grade 1 at Saratoga during Belmont Stakes winner when early speed was the favored style on the turf there. 8-Segesta is 2-for-3 at Keeneland and that kind of record merits respect.
9th Race
To me, it's a two-horse race in the grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity and I'll give the edge to 1-Coach Pope off that dazzling race he ran at Churchill last month. That was his second start and it was at the one-mile distance and that gives him a slight edge over 2-QB Rocket, a Cox-trained runner who no doubt has a ton of talent, too. 6-American History won his debut by almost 8 lengths for Pletcher but I don't think he's at the level of the first two.
10th Race
7-Lake Forest gets the nod in the grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile. He's a group 2 winner in Europe and he's been very competitive in group 1 company there. 3-Rhetorical won this race last year and trainer Will Walden says his runner is coming up to this start as good as he was then. 2-Brilliant Berti seems to be getting back to his best form and he's won here.
11th Race
Maiden two-year old fillies close out this fantastic card and 10-Rapagna is worth a look. She sold at a two-year old sale for $325,000 and that's off a stud fee of only $25k so she clearly showed some talent. 7-Pastya is a Rusty Arnold-trained debut runner that sold for almost five times the stud fee earlier this year. 3-Rock Your Dreams is a first-timer from the McPeek barn. She's posting fast workout timews and he's sent out some good-looking juveniles. 2-Right in Time was another pricey two-year old auction purchase.
Buy Tickets