1st Race
1-Emirates Affair finished in the top two in seven of nine starts last year, racing in Florida and California. The Hess barn knows its ways to winner's circle here and this mare's form, even at age eight, looks too good to pick against at a short price. 6-Coastline Hottie ran her best race yet in her last start, the first outing off a short break. The tendency to finish third more often than first or second keeps me from picking this mare to upset the favorite. 4-Sunset Harbour drops down a notch in the claiming price for this spot and as a four-year old filly, maybe she has a little upside left--and she's 3-fror-9 lifetime.
2nd Race
1-Ruiva gets the nod off a lightning fast work from the gate here on March 14 for the Ward barn. 2-Arctic Wolf posted a similar move on this track last week so if there's a filly that keeps Wesley Ward from getting to the winner's circle in this spot, this is likely the one to do it. 8-Paper Run shows a workout here in 34-and-4 last month and that was followed by two moves from the starting gate so don't be surprised if this filly is ready to fire first time out.
3rd Race
7-Conquering Marin beat half the field in her first US start and the winner came back to win again and the runnerup finished a good second here last Sunday. The Walsh barn started to heat up last weekend. 8-Headspin just missed in a debut on synthetic at Gulfstream for the Mott-Alvarado team that has clicked quite well here this month. 2-Gellhorn ran a mile off a long layoff and faded after showing early speed. On the cutback to a sprint here, this filly could have a say in this outcome and that was a pretty good group that she faced in that most recent race.
4th Race
The Arnold barn runners have been firing this spring here at Keeneland and 4-Mo Work could upset the favorite in this spot. He tried the synthetic last time so draw a line through that and focus on a couple of solid main track efforts last summer at Churchill. A return to that form could do the trick. 3-Shangrala Road ran very well here last spring but I'm leery of the drop into claiming company for this one at short odds. 6-Bite and Strike fought the rider in his race here on opening day but a return to the form he showed in Florida in his previous two starts would make him a contender. 7-Attersee is moving up in class but that was a significant improvement in that most recent start.
5th Race
6-Stars and Strides looked like a rising star last summer at Saratoga but the last two runs are head-scratchers. I'll forgive the most recent one as it was off a significant layoff and against a much tougher group that he faces in this spot. I don't think you'll get the 12-1 ML but he's a viable contender for Mott and Alvarado. 9-Judge Davis improved after moving into the Maker barn last fall and I'll ignore the synthetic track experiment last time out. 5-Just a Touch was second choice in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes in 2024 but he's never really built on the promise he was showing back then and now he experiments with turf. The fact that he's by Justify is the main reason to think this one could excel on the surface switch. 10-California Burrito ran okay in his only turf effort last November at Churchill and the Drury barn has good numbers with turf runners. Saez in the saddle is a plus. 1-Maycocks Bay comes off a 93 Beyer in his first start off a long layoff.
6th Race
1-Union Mist is the higher price of the ones I like but I'm not sold completely on any of them--hence, go for the best price and I like the rail draw for Walsh and Gafflione. 7-Clarita has run well in all three starts but hasn't done enough to warrant a bet at low odds. 3-Ebony and Ivory has five runnerup finishes to one win. 4-Metfardeh makes the second start off a layoff for Pletcher.
7th Race
2-Carcano ran well in two turf races last summer but then made his next three starts on synthetic, with two of them producing career-best Beyers of 90. If he transfers that improved form back to what may be his best surface, he could upset this bunch for the Oliver barn and jockey Luis Saez. 8-Chapman's Peak ran his best Beyer figure to date last time out, at Gulfstream. 6-Coiled ran a good third in the second race off a layoff and the Delacour barn usually brings them in here ready to compete. 10-Mutaawid has seven wins and Mike Maker excels with horses going long on the turf.
8th Race
8-Awesome Ruta ran big in the first start off the Joe Sharp claim. That was on turf but this trainer excels with the turf-to-dirt move and Jose Ortiz takes the mount. 5-Clooney makes the first start for the Foley barn and has nine top two finishes from 17 starts. 9-Time for Trouble has back class, having finished fourth here last spring in the grade 3 Ben Ali.
9th Race
1-Event Detail makes the second start off a long layoff and when we interviewed trainer Will Walden for the Today at Keeneland show, he said this horse is touting himself in his training off that comeback effort. And Event Detail has run well on this turf course. 10-Sand Pipes has been facing solid fields in those races at the Fairgrounds and could move up in this group. 5-Anglophile has faced plenty of tough customers but he hasn't won in the last two years. 3-Common Defense is a talented runner but may need more distance than he gets here. 9-Tonka Warrior faced Publisher last time out at Oaklawn and that one is hot right now.
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