Friday, October 2, 2026
Race 7 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:12 p.m.
Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes – Grade 2 – Six Furlongs
Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#4 Verifire – at odds 3 to 2 or higher
#10 Nakatomi – at odds 3 to 1 or higher
#8 Hymn – at odds 7 to 2 or higher
Verifire has won five of seven races. If we exclude his final 2025 race, when he eased, and his first race this year in May, off a nine-month layoff, when he wasn’t 100% fit, his record is perfect. Jockey Flavien Prat rode Verifire in his first three races, all wins. His best Equibase Speed Figure last year was 104, and this year he is even faster, with his last two races earning 110 and 113. No other horse has run that fast in their last races. In the past five years, the horse with the best figure in Keeneland on dirt, sprint, on stakes has won 19 of 63 (30%) starts and finished first or second 29 times, nearly 50%. He doesn’t need the lead, and he could be second to fourth earlier, with Mad House on the rail and Vikin going very fast early. Verifire should get a perfect trip to win his third consecutive race.
Nakatomi won the 2025 Phoenix Stakes and finished second in the race in 2024. He loves Keeneland, where he went 4-2-0 in seven races. After last year’s race, he finished a troubled ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, then he ran in March in the Dubai Golden Shaheen, when he only rallied from 12th to fifth. He took five months, and his last race, on August 22, was just to get him fit for this race. Last year before he won this race, he also finished third. His best figures were 105 last year and 109 in the Vanderbilt Stakes. Although he isn’t fast enough to beat Verifire, his record makes him a shot.
Hymn already earned a start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint when he won his last race, the Forego Stakes on August 29. This race is to keep him fit, so he doesn’t have to win it. Still, he has won four of his last five starts and finished second in the other. His jockey in his last two races was Ricardo Santana, who is riding in New York this weekend. Make that you of that. His last five races earned 108, 107, 107, 102, and 102, so it appears he will need a career-best effort to beat Verifire.
Get my other racing content
‘Pick of the day’ every weekend – https://www.keeneland.com/legacy-news-category/keeneland-select
Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast https://www.amwager.com/category/ellis-starr-blog/
Free Selection for one free race daily at:
Keeneland - https://www.keeneland.com/racing/expert-picks/31
Buy Tickets