Sunday, October 4, 2026
Race 10 at Keeneland - Post Time 6:20 p.m.
Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes – Grade 2

Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#9 Blaring Ambition – at odds of 3 to 1 or higher
#2 Agate – at odds of 3 to 1 or higher

There are many horses that have shots in this race, but I’m highlighting two.

If anyone had not watched Race 9 on September 9 at Kentucky Downs, they would not have believed what happened. Blaring Ambition broke slowly, 10th, and was more than 10 lengths behind after the first quarter and was still last a quarter mile to run at eight lengths behind. Then Blaring Ambition started passing horses with every stride to win, but he was still fifth, four lengths behind the leaders. He kept running, winning, not just by a nose but by nearly three lengths going away.

That was a breathtaking effort by Blaring Ambition. It reminded me of Rush Falling, who won her first start in 2017 after being 11th early and then winning easily. Then in her second start she won the Jessamine Stakes (for females, similar to the Castle & Key Bourbon for males) at Keeneland in 2017, making a powerful move from 12th, 10 lengths back, and then she won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Based on Blaring Ambition’s debut effort, I believe he will win this and be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf one month from now at Keeneland.

Agate also had trouble at the start in his last race, the Juvenile Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs, on the same day Blaring Ambition won. He took a bad step and was 10th at the six-furlong mark in a mile race. He was eighth after a quarter mile, but he started to rally and was third after the eighth pole. He couldn’t make any further headway and finished third. In his second career start, at his first route, Agate started second and won by four lengths. He earned the best Equibase Speed Figure of 90 in the field. Horses with their highest last Equibase Speed Figure in stakes, turf, and routes, with starting odds of less than 10/1, have won 25% of more than 400 starts. 

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